Derby Handicapping Question

[Grumpy]

One problem I always have in handicapping the Derby is determining which horses will, or will not, like the Churchill Downs dirt track. If anyone knows a link that lists the major tracks and tells what the surface is (dirt, poly, proride, etc) I would like to know the link.

Also, I would be interested in your opinions of which Derby contenders will like the dirt and which will not.

Thanks,

Grumpy

[elnutsmalljaws]

I am sure there is a list of the tracks and their surfaces somewhere. My guess is go to drf.com, that is the daily racing forms main web page, and you will find it there. My opinion only - but the different track surfaces will drive more and more people AWAY from betting horses, which will only hurt the industry and we all know what kind of state we live in. There use to be Dirt and Turf. Yes even though only 2 surfaces, they still varied by geographic locations, Dirt and turf was firm and faster out west say in California and deeper and slower in New York of instance. That is why final running times are compared with speed figures instead of looking at the clock timing only. Now we have Dirt, Poly, Pro Ride, Turf, Synthetic ..... All kinds of synthetic tracks. Some think it is Dirt, Turf and Polytrack but that is wrong for there are MANY types of Polytracks. With the synthetic tracks being relatively new to the industry, many trials and tribulations are still going on. The "rule" of thumb is that if the horse likes or is bred for the turf then he will like the synthetic. There is enough information out there now to where horses are being BRED for the synthetic tracks and you can see horses that clearly perform better on one surface or the other.

As far as handicapping the Derby, the PP's will show what surfaces the horses have ran on. If I see a horse that has only performe well on synthetic surfaces or only ran on synthetic surfaces then that is a big FLAG in my handicapping arsenal to consider. Unless he is a major stakes winner coming from say California where all the tracks are mandatory Synthetic then I don't give him a shot. History has shown in the Derby that you need to have ran well on a conventional surface to do well or win the Derby. This is why I think the Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby and Wood Memorial are the major prep races for they are all on dirt surfaces. The Santa Anita Derby and Blugrass Stakes are on Poly tracks and unless a horse has shown a good trip over the dirt coming from these races then he is a throw out in my book.

This all being said, Churchill Downs is a very unique dirt surface. Some horses will wake up and LOVE it when they get here and others will hate it. As far as horses that will like the surface at CD it depends on the track conditions at race day. In the past a Muddy track at CD favors speed, most of the fast track races favor closers but the guy in charge of the surface can "speed up or slow down" that surface as well as any other track in america. Look at the races the few days before and even on race day, study the fractions to see if class speed is holding, cheap speed is holding, inside speed, or is every horse up and on the pace early getting passed by the field late. Handicapping is an A-Z proposition and every letter has to be looked at in order to make the proper wager.

ESKENDEREYA - will love CD, is the best horse, bred to easily get the 1 1/4 distance, wins the Derby by 5 lengths, the battle is for second place

[RoadToad]

Elnut's right on, of course, only thing I would add is that they usually roll the track during Derby week to make it even harder and faster than usual. They love to see track records broken.

[Grumpy]

Elnut, if DRF has a listing I haven't been able to find it. I even tried going down the list of DRF links to the various tracks, and most of the track webpages don't even say anything about the type of surface.

You said, the Past Performances show the type surface, but other than when there is nothing shown for the type of surface, which I figure means DIRT, or when there is a T inside a circle, which I figure means TURF, I can;t find any listing for the other symbols. Do you just assume that the A, the X and the DOT. all mean artificials?

Thanks for your input.

Grumpy

[elnutsmalljaws]

I mis-understood your original question. The way the DRF shows the type of surface is as follows:

Nothing listed by the track in the PP and the race was held on DIRT, unless it shows an I with a circle around it and that means inner dirt (usually for Aqueduct which has an inner dirt track and a main dirt track, inner dirt is used mainly in the winter)
Capital T with a circle around it and the race was held on TURF
X with a circle around it means the race was schedule for the Turf but taken off and ran on dirt instead (usually due to rain)
Capital A with a diamond around it and it means the race was held on ARTIFICIAL

Artificial tracks could be any of the following: Cushion, Pro Ride, Polytrack, Fibresand or Tapeta Footings

I don't know of a master list that shows what track runs what Artificial Surface. I do know that it makes it very hard for the novice to try and get into the handicapping game. I have been doing it for 25 years and I still get confused with the new surfaces. But just like ANY OTHER THING IN THE HORSE RACING INDUSTRY, there is not one governing body and therefore to each is own and I think it will be the eventual downfall of the horse racing industry as a whole. Not total elimination but if they don't do something to get the younger generation involved in the "gambling" side of it - because face it without the betting public there is no horse racing industry, then 25 years from now only Keeneland, Saratoga and the more tradition rich tracks will be around. Bye Bye to tracks like Ellis, Turfway, Calder, Gulfstream, and others like them

[Grumpy]

Elunt, thanks again. I agree with your comments about the future of racing. Over the years I have invited many co-workers and friends to go to the races at Chruchill Downs and almost none of the "younger" people have ever gone. I have a couple of people that like it and it is always more fun if you can get two or three or more to go as a group. I used to take a big group to Millionaire's Row a couple times a year but stopped that after Churchill renovated and then raised their prices and did several other things to run off the "little guy". They are not helping themselves either, but that is a whole different story.

Thanks

Grumpuy

[redneckshadrap]

Grumpy, start watching the horses that transition from Keeneland to Churchill or from Churchill back to Turfway...It will take more than just watching the Derby to see what Elwood is talking about.
We had a horse that won at Keeneland last fall and laid an egg at Churchill Downs one month later, then had 2 seconds at Turfway....

Some horses just don't like it. I do know that different tracks have different shoe requirements and that can make a difference as well...

I'm still learning all this crap in a crash course sense....if that makes sense....

.

[elnutsmalljaws]

It used to be horses performed better on dirt or turf. There was "dirt" breeding and "turf" breeding and when the Artificial Surfaces started years ago then the initial philosophy was that if a horse did well on turf then they did well on Artificial. Now as the years have gone by the industry is actually started breeding for the Artifical surfaces. Still does not help the novice horse player because all Artificial surfaces are not alike or created equally. The Artificial at Arlington Park in Chicago versus Turfway Park in Florence Ky versus Keeneland in Lexington are all different and just a few hours apart. The Pro Ride of Santa Anita and Cushion Tranck of Hollywood Park are both different and basically are in the same city. Unless you are a DAILY HORSE PLAYER and follow specific circuits, you won't know the difference between the surfaces and tendancies of the tracks. Bad situation for average joe horse gambler in the long run