Belmont Stakes Race

[Grumpy]

Hey, Elnut, have you handicapped the Belmont yet?

Here the Jingle I made with my picks:

FIRST DUDE did a FLY DOWN onto the ICE BOX to MAKE MUSIC FOR ME and be INTERACTIF with DAVE IN DIXIE.

My one bet on the Belmont will be a Trifecta using the horses in my Jingle. The first four will all be in Win, Place and Show postions and the last two will also be in the Show spot. 4 5 6 11 w/ 4 5 6 11 w/ 1 4 5 6 11 12 for a $1 cost of $48.

I learned a long time ago that you can't cover them all, but this bet covers a lot and the beauty is that any two of the first four and either of the last two can be completely out of the money and you can still win. Of course if one of the last two wins you lose.

Grumpy

[elnutsmalljaws]

Not much to handicap, First Dude goes to the front, nobody goes with First Dude, First Dude lopes along to a half in around 52 seconds, nobody goes with First Dude, First Dude hits the 3/4's in around 1:19, nobody goes with First Dude, top of the stretch and Fly Down makes his move to the throat latch of First Dude, Ice Box then makes his move 3 wide and depending on who is the best of the 3 will win the race. I am not betting the race but I would have to wait before post time to make my wager if I was and it would all depend on the odds. Personally I think Ice Box is the best horse in the race, the only horse to win a Grade 1 and 1 of the only 2 horses to win a stakes race at over a 1 1/16 of a mile, was the best horse in the Derby by 6 lengths. Depending on Ice Box's odds would be the factor in my wager. I think Ice Box should be of good value in the race since he should go off at 8-5 but will be at 5-2 or 3-1. The better the odds the more likely I would bet him. Fly Down is the improving horse with a real shot in the race and First Dude is the lone speed that is always dangerous. My gut says Ice Box over Fly Down over First Dude in the trifecta and they are the only 3 in the race that I could bet. The safe play is probably boxing them in the trifecta but you won't get much back on your investment.

[RoadToad]

I love Ice Box, but I don't know if there's enough speed in the race for him to win. I'm picking Fly Down, but I won't be betting.

[Grumpy]

****, it looks like I am wasting my money hoping one of my longshots would get in. We'll see this evening.

Grumpy

[elnutsmalljaws]

I would not bet any longshot in this race. I know with Lemon Drop Kid, Datara and others that paid Boxcars in the past but this race sets up different. There really is only 3 horses with a shot at winning the race. First Dude is lone speed and lone speed is DANGEROUS in any horse race. Lone speed can lope around on the front end setting the fractions that he wants then basically it is a sprint to the finish and with him up front and a speed horse has all the advantage. Fly Down will be stalking the pace but from a few lengths back in 4th or 5th but is the improving horse and the best shot at winning the race if he keeps on improving. His 99 Beyer in his last start is one of the best in the field, his running style could be an advantage over Ice Box plus his start 2 back in La, he went from 7 lengths back at the half, got steadied and dropped back 14 lengths off the pace and only lost by 6. You do the math and if he does not get steadied then he wins the race and would have made the Derby field with his graded stakes money. Improving horse with a win over the Belmont Strip in his last, a 99 speed rating plus with Johnny V riding, defineately a lot to like. People say the 1 1/2 mile race is difficult on the horse and that is true but you also have to factor in that there are VERY FEW 1 1/2 mile races on the dirt in the US and that is why horses are not bred to get the 1 1/2 but also this means the jockeys race in VERY FEW 1 1/2 mile races on the dirt. The dirt is not the same as the turf, where there are more distance races, and it is key for the jockey to push the button on the horse at the right time. Johnny V is experience, Ramon Dominguez on First Dude has the experience and will have the hardes job of all in when to push the button to let out some speed, save some, let some out and so forth and Jose Lezcano is an experience Belmont Rider on Ice Box as well. First Dude leads all the way until the 3/8 mile pole and Fly Down will make his move towards the lead with Ice Box a few lengths behind him. Ice Box and Fly Down both can out kick First Dude to the wire but it will depend on how much lead Dude has to begin with and how slow the pace he has set. The more I look at the race and I see it being between these 3 for the win and place spot and if you are wanting to play a longshot then it is Stately Victor. Stately Victor out of Ghostzapper and a Dynaformer Mare should be bred to get as much distance as any other horse in the race. Victor would be my longshot play in the race for a part, I don't think he can win but think he can run well enough to hit for 3rd or 4th.

[bassin_bug]

Am I the only one who bet a bundle on Drosselmeyer?
jk

[Big Gills]

I thought it odd that the winning horse was not even mentioned in this thread before the race. lol Guess it was a surprising win. Beautiful horse and congrat's to Mike Smith. A great jockey.

[RoadToad]

It's great to see Bill Mott get this win. He's a real good horseman, came up under the great Jack VanBerg, and is by all accounts a great guy. I've never worked for him, or even met him, but I had a lot of friends that did, and they always had good things to say about how he treated his horses, and his help. Notice he doesn't run a lot of horses in Triple Crown races, even though he's trained some of the greats? That's because he wants to develop his stock, rather than try and make every horse into a Derby horse. He lets his horses do what they're good at, rather than shoe-horning them into the Triple Crown races. He knows how exceptionally precocious a horse has to be to really belong in the Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont. Mark my words, this horse is going to be one to watch come Breeders' Cup!

[elnutsmalljaws]

I am amazed that it was Mott's first triple crown victory. Real class act that has trained Cigar. Probably one of the best Turf trainers in North America as well as an outstanding trainer of Fillies and Mares. Trained the great Cigar as well and it was hard to beat Mott and Pat Day at Keeneland in the early to mid 90's as well. I think he was the 2nd or 3rd youngest trainer to be inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years back as well.

Pace makes the Race. this was never more true than the Belmont Stakes. First Dude went out and did what everyone thought. Set the pace with very little pressure and actually went a tad bit faster with no pressure than he should have went and that cost him the race. He finished a very well 3rd behind a couple of stalkers. Drosselmeyer was bred for the distance with Distorted Humor as his dad, stalked behind Fly Down and even passed Fly Down down the back stretch that ended up being the winning move because he got first jump on First Dude instead of Fly Down and all could see Fly Down coming late. Ice Box never got the hot pace that he go in the Florida Derby or the hot pace and tiring muddy track that he got in the Ky Derby and ran up the track at 8-5 odds.

Now for a little handicapping tip for the novice players on there: It is funny in that I have family members call me ALL THE TIME, during Derby week, Derby Day, Oaks Day, Preakness Day, Belmont Day and the Breeders Cup weekend asking me to pick them some horses. These are not your experienced horse players these are family members that are betting just because it is a bigger day in racing and they want to be a part of the experience or it is a couple that is taking customers to the track and want to show them a good time in hopes of winning a few bucks. For the experience horse player, NONE of us can sit here at the house and say bet this, bet that, bet this, bet that with 100 percent confidence because it is paramutual wagering. The crowd and bettors determine the odds. In the Belmont, Ice Box goes off at 8-5 as a deep one run closer in a paceless race is a NO BET in my book. If he had been 3-1 or 4-1 then he may have been a bet possibility but again in a paceless race maybe or maybe not, it depends on how First Dude looked warming up. If First Dude was washed out and sweating a lot plus acting up in the post parade then maybe he was too keen up and would go to fast and then if the odds were right I would bet Ice Box. If he was relaxed and looked like he could ease along and set easy fractions then maybe not. The point is, the good horse players look at everything right up to the post time to make a wager. On days like the Belmont and there is so much money in the pool, it would take a HUGE amount of money within the last half hour or so to change the odds. The point is, as a horse racing gambler you are betting YOUR money against the guy standing next to you. He is betting HIS money against your money. Do your handicapping at the house FIRST. Leave with an idea of how the race will run considering the weather and track conditions. Look at the forecast for that day or the next day if you are handicapping ahead to see if the track could come up muddy or sloppy and then handicap 2 different scenarios. No go to the track, wait for the odds to work themselves out and see what is the best way to INVEST YOUR MONEY. I don't always bet the best horse in the race but try to bet the best investment in the race. If I like 2 horses equally like Fly Down and Ice Box and Fly Down is 6-1 versus Ice Box is 8-5 then it is a no brainer in a race like the Belmont you bet Fly Down. The program odds are set by ONE PERSON and he rarely studies the race for more than 5 minutes in doing it. You can watch the Draw for the Ky Derby on TV and once the post positions are drawn, then Mike Battaglia will put out the line for the race within 5 minutes. The biggest race of the year and the guy setting the initial odds studies for 5 minutes based on the PP draw. I never look at the odds in the program because i tis ONE GUYS OPINION. the toteboard at post time will tell you the general consensus of the public. I am done rambling now just trying to help for a couple on here have sent PM's asking for some handicapping tips and questioins.

[the_donger]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

[Chubminnow]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

Yea....my wife always had a thing for the horses that had the term "Cat" somewhere in the name. Funny thing was she was onto something there for awhile, not every time she bet but enough to make me take a second look at my own wagering.

Another thing I believe also is a bettor should go with their first gut instinct....if you think long you think wrong sometimes. At the end of the day, it's all just a horse race and if you're not having a good time then you should be doing something else

I also 100% agree with Elwood....sitting at home placing bets significantly hurts your chances of winning.

[elnutsmalljaws]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

But realize that the people betting a horse name, jockey name, color and such are the same people betting $2 at a time. The professionals that know how to handicap and even the better than average ones that know how to handicap are the ones betting $20, $50, $100, $1000 and such. It takes a whole lot of $2 bets to equal one of these. Plus the tote board is just a guideline to go by. When I say odds that effect my bet I am not splitting hairs between 3-2 and 8-5, but more like 3-2 versus 3-1. some horses are a great bet at 3-1 but not at 3-2. I make my own bettng line on the races that I bet and then depending on the final odds it helps me in my wagering. If I like 2 horses equally and I think horse #1 should be 3-1 and horse #2 should be 3-1 but when with a minute to post and #1 is 8-5 and #2 is 6-1 then I will bet #2. Even if I like #1 a bit more than #2, I still bet #2. In betting horses, not only the best horse does not always win but even if I think a horse is better than the rest I don't always bet this horse - it depends on the odds and return on investment. Sort of like playing the stock market, some stocks are a bigger risk while others are a safer bet but you decide on the investment versus return on ivestment on what you play.

One time to really look at the tote boards is when playing the bigger races, like the triple crown, breeders cup and other such days when there is a LOT of handle and when playing the New York and Southern California circuits where there are a LOT of wiseguys that do this for a living. Early money and a lot of it or late money and a lot of it on a horse will be significant in my decision making.