So, with all the RAIN, how far will KY lake rise..

I'm wondering. My bets are on a few feet.

4 inches of rain over 48 hrs......Yea. 3-4 ft.

What do you guys think?

Later,

Geo

Interestingly the TVA web site is not predicting a rise at all over the next 3 days. Maybe they haven't taken in the new data yet on inflows but on the other hand KY lake feeds from the south and I don't think the heavy rains were to the south - yet.

They'll still bite. It would probably push them in the bays more.


kc

[QUOTE=kc;522416]Interestingly the TVA web site is not predicting a rise at all over the next 3 days. Maybe they haven't taken in the new data yet on inflows but on the other hand KY lake feeds from the south and I don't think the heavy rains were to the south - yet.

They'll still bite. It would probably push them in the bays more.


kc[/QUOTE]

I'm hoping they are right.........I'm thinking a rise though. BUT maybe not, since south didn't get too much water and it all flows to the Ohio, right?

Later,

Geo

I was down this past week when it was a bit cooler and cloudy caught them really well shallow on rattletraps but when it warmed up they backed out late in the week we had our best luck between kenlake bridge and paris in major coves and creeks this weeks forcast should be great for that bite to return

[QUOTE=GeoFisher;522417]I'm hoping they are right.........I'm thinking a rise though. BUT maybe not, since south didn't get too much water and it all flows to the Ohio, right?

Later,

Geo[/QUOTE]

Well watching the national radar today the rain in the Tennessee valley is happening today but I don't see anything like we had in northern KY / southern IN. We had over 6" with 5" pretty common but it was mostly right up the Ohio river - north of the drainage into the big lakes.

Barkley is a factor too in that is the Cumberland river feeding out of eastern ky, through Nashville and up into western ky. Same thing. The Cumberland basin hasn't had that crazy rain but much of the rain there is happening today but it doesn't look like they will see the crazy rains like Louisville saw.

I bet once all is said and done the lakes will come up a foot or so but I am sticking to my theory that most of the big rains missed the Tennessee and Cumberland drainages...


kc

Cumberland at Dover: [URL]http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ohx&gage=dovt1[/URL]

KY and Barkley:
[h=1]Lake Barkley & Kentucky Lake Levels & Conditions[/h][B]All Statistics and Data last updated on Monday, October 07, 2013 5:00 AM Central Time[/B]



[TABLE="width: 704"]
[TR="class: noshow"]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE="width: 450"]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 3"][B]Lake Elevations[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1, bgcolor: #FCFCF8"] [/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2, width: 115, bgcolor: #FAF8DC"][B]Kentucky Lake[/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3, width: 116, bgcolor: #FAF8DC"][B]Lake Barkley[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1, bgcolor: #FCFCF8"][B]Upper Stage (Lake)[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]355.48 '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-steady.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]355.35 '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-falling.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"][B]Upper Level Change in past 12hrs[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]0.03[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-steady.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]0.20[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-falling.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"][B]Upper Level Change in past 24hrs[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]0.28[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]1.25[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-falling.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"][B]Departure from Normal Elevation[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]1.48[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]1.35[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"]Predicted Elevation for 10/7/2013[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]354.86[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-falling.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]N/A[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"][B]Lower Stage (River)[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]303.36[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]306.15[/B] '[B][IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG][/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"][B]Lower Level Change in past 12hrs[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]1.16[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]1.30[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"][B]Lower Level Change in past 24hrs[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]0.77[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-falling.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]2.05[/B] '[IMG]http://www.kentuckylake.com/lake-conditions/lakelevels-rising.gif[/IMG]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"]Normal Summer Pool[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"]359.0'
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"]359.0'
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"]Normal Winter Pool[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"]354.0'
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"]354.0'
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"][B]Hourly updated levels[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B][URL="http://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/lakeinfo?site=KYH&DataType=All&SUBMIT=View+data"]View here[/URL][/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B][URL="http://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/lakeinfo?site=BAH&DataType=All&SUBMIT=View+data"]View here[/URL][/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: style6, colspan: 3"][B]*Lake Elevation data is provided by the [URL="http://www.tva.gov/"]Tennessee Valley Authorit[/URL]
[/B]


[TABLE="width: 450"]
[TR="class: noshow"]
[TD="colspan: 3"][B]Lake Conditions & Current[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"] [/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2, bgcolor: #FAF8DC"][B]Kentucky Lake[/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3, bgcolor: #FAF8DC"][B]Lake Barkley[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"][B]Avg Hourly Flow (CFS)[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]47,085[/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]17,400[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: col1 cell"][B]Current Strength[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]Average[/B]
[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]Average[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: cell col1"][B]Release Schedules[/B][/TD]
[TD="class: cell col2"][B]10/7/2013
5am - midnight[/B]

[/TD]
[TD="class: cell col3"][B]10/7/2013
midnight - midnigh[/B]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

About 5 years ago or so we fished KY in the fall with the water up a few feet and had a fantastic trip fishing shallow in the backs of bays. the higher water somehow concentrated bunches of shad in the flooded bushes. had a blast.

[QUOTE=mess;522464]About 5 years ago or so we fished KY in the fall with the water up a few feet and had a fantastic trip fishing shallow in the backs of bays. the higher water somehow concentrated bunches of shad in the flooded bushes. had a blast.[/QUOTE]

Yea, I remember that fall.

The biggest thing I remember is after a long weekend of fishing, we pulled off the water early. JUST as I was pulling off he water, Embrey called and asked where we were at because they were POUNDING THEM.

I told them we had pulled off.......His response......BAD CALL, really BAD CALL.

In the 20 minutes or so it took me to load the boat, put the cover on and head down the trace, him and Josh and boated 30 fish.

When I talked to him a few hours later, they managed to pound over 100 bass in 3 - 4 hours, with many being solid keepers.

Yea, I remember it.......but for all the wrong reasons :) :)

Later,

Geo

[QUOTE=GeoFisher;522415]I'm wondering. My bets are on a few feet.

4 inches of rain over 48 hrs......Yea. 3-4 ft.

What do you guys think?

Later,

Geo[/QUOTE]


Well today's elevation predictions will be a little better now that the rain has gone through the whole basin. And the verdict is steady as she goes:

Predicted Data



Day

Average Inflow*

Midnight Elevation*

Average Outflow*

10/07/2013 68,165 355.43 47,368
10/08/2013 48,278 355.48 47,600
10/09/2013 48,333 355.46 47,500


Well that cut and paste didn't go as well as I hoped but you may note the next two days the same elevation...

kc