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So I've been listening to a lot of people talk about all the snow we've had this winter and most of them believe that we might get a drought this summer since we're getting all the moisture now. What do you guys think? Mhall you predicted this cold winter what's your prediction for the summer?
[QUOTE=kentuckykingfisher;528094]So I've been listening to a lot of people talk about all the snow we've had this winter and most of them believe that we might get a drought this summer since we're getting all the moisture now. What do you guys think? Mhall you predicted this cold winter what's your prediction for the summer?[/QUOTE]
My $.02:
Weather patterns just aren't that simple. There's not a bucket full of water somewhere that we're drawing from, emptying it for summertime. If we have a summer drought it will be because of oceanic temperatures/currents, jet stream fluctuations, etc. and not because we're having a wet winter.
[QUOTE=jcb;528095]My $.02:
Weather patterns just aren't that simple. There's not a bucket full of water somewhere that we're drawing from, emptying it for summertime. If we have a summer drought it will be because of oceanic temperatures/currents, jet stream fluctuations, etc. and not because we're having a wet winter.[/QUOTE]
Very nice answer and correct in many ways however sometimes extremes spawn extremes. I look for a very wet Spring with alot of Storms and unfortunately some very Severe. Weather temp and precip averages tend to do just that...average out. That does not bode well for Summer precip. Also history in this geographic location tells us that very bad very wet winters tend to be followed by super hot and dry Summers.
I am looking personally for an extremely wet Spring and a stormy one follwed by a early wet Summer then it gets very dry especially southern Kentucky. How long will it last maybe not dangerously long. You can all go to the CPC which stand for Climate Prediction Center and see one month up to three month forecasted outlooks. I will tell you this though they have been HORRIBLY off for months in many locations.
I like to use past history, it will hold true more than anything. This Summer may indeed be very very dry?
Cycles do and will repeat themselves this we know for sure and while scientist and Met's don't want to admit they use the past years of weather as a tool they do it much more than they let on...;)
I banter with two different Met's in Louisville via e-mails and PM's on facebook quite often and I have had both of them admit that to me when I asked.
[QUOTE=mhall;528121]Very nice answer and correct in many ways however sometimes extremes spawn extremes. I look for a very wet Spring with alot of Storms and unfortunately some very Severe. Weather temp and precip averages tend to do just that...average out. That does not bode well for Summer precip. Also history in this geographic location tells us that very bad very wet winters tend to be followed by super hot and dry Summers.
I am looking personally for an extremely wet Spring and a stormy one follwed by a early wet Summer then it gets very dry especially southern Kentucky. How long will it last maybe not dangerously long. You can all go to the CPC which stand for Climate Prediction Center and see one month up to three month forecasted outlooks. I will tell you this though they have been HORRIBLY off for months in many locations.
I like to use past history, it will hold true more than anything. This Summer may indeed be very very dry?[/QUOTE]
I agree I always thought that precipitation and heat degree days pretty well averaged out over a year.
[QUOTE=mhall;528121]Very nice answer and correct in many ways however sometimes extremes spawn extremes. I look for a very wet Spring with alot of Storms and unfortunately some very Severe. Weather temp and precip averages tend to do just that...average out. That does not bode well for Summer precip. Also history in this geographic location tells us that very bad very wet winters tend to be followed by super hot and dry Summers.
I am looking personally for an extremely wet Spring and a stormy one follwed by a early wet Summer then it gets very dry especially southern Kentucky. How long will it last maybe not dangerously long. You can all go to the CPC which stand for Climate Prediction Center and see one month up to three month forecasted outlooks. I will tell you this though they have been HORRIBLY off for months in many locations.
I like to use past history, it will hold true more than anything. This Summer may indeed be very very dry?[/QUOTE]
I think you're correct about a "stormy spring". I hope so, I'm a tornado nut as you probably are too. This picture Reed Timmer posted on Twitter caught my eye though. For the past two years the severe weather highway has been east and west of us.
[URL]https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/432655341470232577/photo/1[/URL]
[QUOTE=jcb;528160]I think you're correct about a "stormy spring". I hope so, I'm a tornado nut as you probably are too. This picture Reed Timmer posted on Twitter caught my eye though. For the past two years the severe weather highway has been east and west of us.
[URL]https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/432655341470232577/photo/1[/URL][/QUOTE]
Have always been fascinated by them but equally as scared. I really hate the destruction and sometimes loss of life.
They are truely one of God's wonders though and can destroy in seconds what takes man years to build. I hope we avoid all that business.
[QUOTE=mhall;528162]Have always been fascinated by them but equally as scared. I really hate the destruction and sometimes loss of life.
They are truely one of God's wonders though and can destroy in seconds what takes man years to build. I hope we avoid all that business.[/QUOTE]
I've always wanted to see a tornado myself. I've got close but haven't seen it touch the ground. They are scary but amazing at the same time. So much power.... It's nuts. I really want to see one but then again I don't. Like you said the destruction is devasting and it can really destroy peoples lives
Volunteer fireman here and I'm not in a hurry to see a tornado myself. I've been called out of bed at night to help rescue injured people and look for and recover bodies. I hope that never happens again, but if it does I'll go. You are out there in the dark, the rain, with downed electrical lines, and many other hazards. It's not something you would look forward to or wish on people.
[QUOTE=Olgrey;528198]Volunteer fireman here and I'm not in a hurry to see a tornado myself. I've been called out of bed at night to help rescue injured people and look for and recover bodies. I hope that never happens again, but if it does I'll go. You are out there in the dark, the rain, with downed electrical lines, and many other hazards. It's not something you would look forward to or wish on people.[/QUOTE]
Don't get me wrong, I hate what tornadoes do as well. And I don't "look forward" to them or "wish them" on anyone. Whether or not they come isn't up to me.
[QUOTE=kentuckykingfisher;528174]I've always wanted to see a tornado myself. I've got close but haven't seen it touch the ground. They are scary but amazing at the same time. So much power.... It's nuts. I really want to see one but then again I don't. Like you said the destruction is devasting and it can really destroy peoples lives[/QUOTE]
Same here. Major storms are very interesting and gets me fired up but I realize there can be terrible consequences. I have seen a water spout but never a tornado that touched the ground. We watched clouds spinning above us in Lexington about 6 years ago. We had some awful May storms moving through and we were fishing on Lake Ellerslie. Of course we got off the water but it was hard not to stay outside and watch the clouds. The weather radio was going off the severe weather/tornado sirens were blaring across south Lexington and it was just flat out exciting.
I think Masterson Station ended up with a touch down but south Lexington didn't get one if I remember correctly.