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I am headed to the Derby infield, I will be taking a few of the nieces and nephews who are old enough to be there. Anyway, looking at the forecast, I was wondering if any of you horse enthusiats can give me a few pointers on how to pick out the horses that run well in the mud. How do you know if they have no listings for races run in the mud? How do you pick them out? Use the pedigree? Any picks you know of that might be good for this situation?
Sometimes no knowledge is the best knowledge when it rains......
The Daily Racing Form Past Performances has a thing called the Tomlinson Ratings, part of which is a pedigree rating for a horse's ability to run on a sloppy track. Every horse in this year's derby has a good rating for running in the mud, except for Backtalk and his last two races were rated Sloppy. He was third in one and won one. Also, most of the Derby horses have had good work outs this week in the slop. It should not be a problem for any of them.
Grimpy
You will find the DRF ratings on "Wet" tracks listed in the top right hand corner of each PP. Any rating higher than 320 is a horse that you should consider. CD track can favor speed horses a LOT on a sloppy surface. One Derby that comes to mind is Go For Gin's dominating performance several years back. For someone that is just going to the track for the day and is basically betting for "entertainment purposes only" then bet what you want. For someone who is looking at making money in the long run or trying to do this for a living or even a novice that does not care about the "entertainment purpose" of the race then I will give you the following advice: if the track comes up muddy or sloppy and you don't have a STONG opinion about a horse in a particular race or if there are too many horses that have never run on an off track and you don't know enough about the breeding to either throw them out or consider them then the SMART PLAY is to PASS THE RACE. There are other tracks all over the world running and another race will come along in about 2 minutes. The horseplayer that is in it to MAKE MONEY will not bet every race on the card. You won't find a handicapper that sits there day after day after day betting each and every race that will come out ahead in the long run. Pick your spots where you love a live 6-1 shot and the favorite is vulnerable or find a race where you absolutely hate the 4/5 shot and you throw him completely out and handicap the heck out of that race. This is where the money is to be made.
Ditto on the point about CD favoring speed horses when it's wet, and really, I'm thinking the biggest effect all the rain will have is to make it harder on closers. When I'm trying to figure out if a horse that's never run in the mud is going to like it or not, I don't look so much at the pedigree as the conformation. IMHO, smaller horses with smaller hooves tend to be better mudders (of course there are exceptions). Especially if the underside of their foot is more cup-shaped, they can usually cut through the mud and get a hold of the track base better than a horse with a big, flat foot, who is going to slide around on the surface more.
[QUOTE=RoadToad;412064]Ditto on the point about CD favoring speed horses when it's wet, and really, I'm thinking the biggest effect all the rain will have is to make it harder on closers. When I'm trying to figure out if a horse that's never run in the mud is going to like it or not, I don't look so much at the pedigree as the conformation. IMHO, smaller horses with smaller hooves tend to be better mudders (of course there are exceptions). Especially if the underside of their foot is more cup-shaped, they can usually cut through the mud and get a hold of the track base better than a horse with a big, flat foot, who is going to slide around on the surface more.[/QUOTE]
Shoe choice....
Lots of good info, thanks a ton fellas!
[QUOTE=redneckshadrap;412116]Shoe choice....[/QUOTE]
...only goes so far.