How did you do on the Derby??

Me, I lost $24 dollars on my 3-4-13-14 Trifecta Box. When I lose on a race I look back at it the next day and see where I messed up. Considering one of my horses the 4 won the race, I know of 3 things that cost me from hitting the Trifecta in the Derby for at least $2000.

Nobles Promise the 3, should have been in the top 3. Willie Martinez had him too close to a brutal 46 second half mile pace set by Conveyance on a Muddy tiring track. Then Wille Martinez moved way too early to take the lead before the top of the stretch. Nobles Promise held on for 5th and made an outstanding showing for himself considering the 3 horses in front of him at the half mile pole all finished worse than 15th.

Mission Impazzible the 14, clipped heels in the first turn and lost 3 lengths when he was pulled up, then had to get going again, then was blocked into the 3rd turn and lost another 2 positioins and had to get going again. He finished 9th but easily outran his 9th position. Not saying he would have hit the board but would have like to see him get a clean trip and possibly hit for 3rd or 4th.

Ice Box, I did not play the best closer in the field on a tiring Muddy track. My bet was placed on Friday by a friend of mine and the smart thing would have been to wait until Saturday but I had no plans on going to place any bets on Saturday. CD, as I stated in an earlier post, favors CLOSERS on a Muddy track because it is so tiring. This is why you saw Paddy O Prado, Make Music for Me and Ice Box come from the clouds to run 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Ice Box should have won the race by 2 lengths due to absolutely getting stopped cold at the 1/4 pole, then swinging 10 wide to get going again and closed like a train. Ice Box was the best closer on paper before the race and the track only helped his chances.


I will say that my buddy crushed them on the Oaks/Derby Double based on my information. I knew that Blind Luck was the best 3 yr old Filly on the planet and loved the 3-4-13-14 in the Derby. He was up some on Oaks day and called me before the Oaks. I told him to bet the farm on Blind Luck, to which he did make a nice win wager but also bet a $40 Oaks/Derby Double on Blind Luck with my 4 horses in the Derby for a $160 wager. He colled a little over $1140 for that bet since it paid $56 and change for a $2 wager. He calls me after the Derby to tell me about it and says the next fishing trip is on him. At least somebody that I know won some money.

I'll have to remember your comment on that track favoring closers when it's like that. I always thought it was the other way around, but a good look at that race shows you're right. So, I guess I had the right horse for the wrong reason. I just thought Ice Box was so much the best that he'd get there even if he had to overcome unfavorable conditions. Anyway, I stuck to my guns, and my little $5Win/$20Show on him was my only bet of the day, so I came out $55 to the good. Plus I had a couple people decide I was their good luck charm, so they kept betting at my window all day and I did okay on tips, AND the 1/2 mile walk back to the car wasn't in the driving rain, like I thought it might be, so I'd say I had one of the best Derby's in years.

We headed over to Keeneland about 5Pm and were going to place some bets and watch the race.

I had settled on Super Saver, Icebox, Paddy O'Prado and Devil May Care as my horses and was planning to bet several combinations of those as exactas and trifectas, superfectas, etc.

Traffic and parking were insane so we decided to skip it and just go get some dinner.

You know the rest. I would have definitely won some money had I placed the bets.

Of course, if I HAD placed the bets, those horses would have finished out of the money ;)

Didn't go anywhere this year. Usually at my buddies blowout in Cecilia but this year we had to postpone. I told the wife before the race it would be Super Saver, I picked the horse strickly because of Borel.

I had the top four horses, but the only trouble was they were in two different bets so I completely missed the Derby. I did hit four Trifectas for the day and came out very well.

Grumpy

[QUOTE=know1;412556]We headed over to Keeneland about 5Pm and were going to place some bets and watch the race.

I had settled on Super Saver, Icebox, Paddy O'Prado and Devil May Care as my horses and was planning to bet several combinations of those as exactas and trifectas, superfectas, etc.

Traffic and parking were insane so we decided to skip it and just go get some dinner.

You know the rest. I would have definitely won some money had I placed the bets.

Of course, if I HAD placed the bets, those horses would have finished out of the money ;)[/QUOTE]


For every $1 exacta box, which would have cost you $12, you would have returned $76.20.

For every $1 trifecta box, which would have cost you $24, you would have returned $1558.70.

Basically every $36 dollar investment you did not make was worth $1634.90. I hope supper was EXCELLENT because I would still be puking mine up.

1 dollar Ex boxes

1,4,7
2,4,18
3,4,14
1 dollar straight supers
4,1,20,13
1,4,13,20

20.00 ....but hit the exacta for 1.00.....

Was hoping for a 3-4 finish, but the 3 died.....the #2 will be scary in the next 2 barring the return os eskendrya


GOMEZ got stroked again. Wonder whose ass he was going to go and try to whip this time?

[QUOTE=redneckshadrap;412668]1 dollar Ex boxes

1,4,7
2,4,18
3,4,14
1 dollar straight supers
4,1,20,13
1,4,13,20

20.00 ....but hit the exacta for 1.00.....

Was hoping for a 3-4 finish, but the 3 died.....the #2 will be scary in the next 2 barring the return os eskendrya


GOMEZ got stroked again. Wonder whose ass he was going to go and try to whip this time?[/QUOTE]


You got back $76.20 on your second exacta box so you made 3 1/2 to 1 on your money. Can't tell you how many times I have had a $40 or $50 exacta cold one way becasue I thought that was exactly how it would come in but then play a $5 saver the other way and win on the saver bet that gets me back my big bet plus a little more.

As far as the 3 horse, I keep coming back to him because he was my top pick, I don't understand why Cornelio Velasquez rode Dean Kitten in his last 3 starts - all decent efforts but none on the dirt and bred top and bottom for the turf or synthetic track not the dirt. But Robby Albarado gets off Nobles Promise, the 3, to get on Deans Kitten. My only guess is with the huge stable that Ken Ramsey, owner of Deans Kitten, maybe Robby did it as a favor to get in good to ride more of his better horses. I don't know but Willie Martinez will NOT be riding Nobles Promise in his next start, you can bet that, horrible ride, but that is horse racing, not like dog racing where you can only lay blame on the animal or the trainer, you get the actual jockey human factor actually within the race to either blame or consider before.

I do think it is funny that Kent Desormeaux said that "he was steadied at the 1/4 pole on Paddy O Prado and would have won the race if not for that". If what I saw in the replay, Kent is calling "Steadied" then Ice Box was knocked down - did a triple lundy backflip - jockey was thrown from his mount - horse had to come backwards 1/8 of a mile to retrieve the jockey - then turn around and close like a train to get second. Kent is off his meds, Ice Box was the best horse in the Derby and anyone that knows the least little bit about horse racing can go to kentuckyderby.com and watch the replay and just see the trip that the 4 gets versus the trip the 2 gets and prove to me the 2 did not lose somewhere between 8-10 lengths in the race, versus the 4 never lost a step. Take half of what I say Ice Box lost during the race versus the losing margin and Ice Box still wins by 3. Looking at Lucky did not have the best of trips either and will be a SERIOUS factor in the Preakness so don't discount him just yet. Give Lucky a middle to outside post and any kind of trip and he will be right there but trouble seems to find him during races. Garrett will still be riding him for no way Baffert fires the best jockey going today

Lost 1300$ Derby day at Home Depot. My lossing trifecta was: #1.HONEYDEW #2.DAUGHTERSNEEDLIGHTSINTHEBARN #3.DADDYNEEDSMOREBEER Shoulda put it all on #3 LOL