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Every presidential election year the lame stream media claims Ind's will decide the election. Mitt Romney is smoking 0 in the Ind's vote, and now it seems they are not near as important as women voters.
Romney is closing the gender gap at breakneck speed and even leads among married women voters in some polls, and close in single female stats. Yet some lsm polls have 0 leading, can anyone tell me what group is propelling him?
Eta, I have said it for a while now, Romney wins handily!!!!!!!!!!!
Personally I believe Romney will win by a large margin. I have a completely unscientific hunch about the polls. I think that there are many people that don't want to answer many of these polls honestly because they don't want to sound like, or go on some type of record as being racist. It is just easy for people to say undecided or still considering Obama, but then when behind that curtain they will think about the economy, all of Obama's unfulfilled promises, and pull the switch for Romney. I just don't believe when reality hits that someone who has been even worse than Jimmy Carter ever was will not get blown out in the election.
I guess I'll be the voice of doom and gloom here. Unfortunately, Pres. Obama wins comfortably, 25-40 electoral votes.
Polling methodology is in crisis. The number of people who refuse to respond to the poll keeps growing, what pollsters call "non-response bias." This bias is highest in urban areas, which are BO's base.
Drudge, Fox and others are doing their best to present the idea that Romney is surging, and MSDNC the idea that Romney is fading. I don't believe either of those ideas. Unfortunately I think Pres. Obama has had this locked up for a long, long time.
if one goes by polling fishin.com, the big R will win big time. but outside ky, and across the rest of the USA, I think the President will have no problem being re elected. in fact I think he will defeat the big R worse than he did the big M 4 years ago.
[QUOTE=waterdog101;501439]if one goes by polling fishin.com, the big R will win big time. but outside ky, and across the rest of the USA, I think the President will have no problem being re elected. in fact I think he will defeat the big R worse than he did the big M 4 years ago.[/QUOTE]
If you're looking for a crazy check, you have crossed the threshhold.
[QUOTE=jcb;501437]I guess I'll be the voice of doom and gloom here. Unfortunately, Pres. Obama wins comfortably, 25-40 electoral votes.
Polling methodology is in crisis. The number of people who refuse to respond to the poll keeps growing, what pollsters call "non-response bias." This bias is highest in urban areas, which are BO's base.
Drudge, Fox and others are doing their best to present the idea that Romney is surging, and MSDNC the idea that Romney is fading. I don't believe either of those ideas. Unfortunately I think Pres. Obama has had this locked up for a long, long time.[/QUOTE]
Except.............over 1/2 of the young folks registered to vote the last time around are NOT registered this time around. They will probably sit it out.
Except...........Leftist polling sites over poll democrats sometimes by 10-15 percent.
Except..........Women are swinging slowly from Obama to Romney.
Except.........Obama is now spending in pennsylvania, michigan and minnesota. NO MONEY before, yet, they must spend there now. Obama is losing ground everywhere.
I don't know who will win....but I'm surely not drinking the Kool-Aid.......from either side.
Geo
[QUOTE=jcb;501437]I guess I'll be the voice of doom and gloom here. Unfortunately, Pres. Obama wins comfortably, 25-40 electoral votes.
Polling methodology is in crisis. The number of people who refuse to respond to the poll keeps growing, what pollsters call "non-response bias." This bias is highest in urban areas, which are BO's base.
Drudge, Fox and others are doing their best to present the idea that Romney is surging, and MSDNC the idea that Romney is fading. I don't believe either of those ideas. Unfortunately I think Pres. Obama has had this locked up for a long, long time.[/QUOTE]
Read this and argue against it with your thoughts.
[url]http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/01/Eight-reasons-Pro-Obama-Polls-Are-Wrong[/url]
Yes I know that Breitbart was liberals enemy #1, just read it.
I think Obama is almost certain to win, for one reason only: the bookies in both Vegas and the UK (thank you, jcb) have him heavily favored. Un-scientific, yes, but those guys didn't get rich by picking losers. Trying to predict it by polls and any other "scientific" methods is hopeless if you ask me.
Obama will win this election in the supreme court! Thats my prediction.:D
[QUOTE=RoadToad;501481]I think Obama is almost certain to win, for one reason only: the bookies in both Vegas and the UK (thank you, jcb) have him heavily favored. Un-scientific, yes, but those guys didn't get rich by picking losers. Trying to predict it by polls and any other "scientific" methods is hopeless if you ask me.[/QUOTE]
Bookies really don't try to pick winners. Instead, based on the money that is coming in they will establish odds in order to attempt to keep the money spread as even as possible between bets. Ideally a bookie would want the exact same money bet on each side of a contest. They really aren't gambling themselves in the traditional sense, but instead make their money on the vig. So the odds really only reflect how much money is being placed on each option available to the bettors, then the bookies will move the odds based on the bets in order to try and attract bets that help keep the money coming in evenly on each side and use the losing bets to pay off the winning bets, and they keep the vig.
[QUOTE=RoadToad;501481]I think Obama is almost certain to win, for one reason only: the bookies in both Vegas and the UK (thank you, jcb) have him heavily favored. Un-scientific, yes, but those guys didn't get rich by picking losers. Trying to predict it by polls and any other "scientific" methods is hopeless if you ask me.[/QUOTE]
Romney will win every swing state, and beat Obama by a decent margin.
AND then Obama will be brought up on Treason charges.......and sent to guantinamo and be waterboarded. We need to find out WHAT he knew about Libya......
And then I wake up.
[QUOTE=GeoFisher;501489]Romney will win every swing state, and beat Obama by a decent margin.
AND then Obama will be brought up on Treason charges.......and sent to guantinamo and be waterboarded. We need to find out WHAT he knew about Libya......
And then I wake up.[/QUOTE]
LOL