I think Louisville is the better team, but I don't think they match-up well with UK at all. In other words, I think Louisville has/had a better chance to win the Championship, but I give the edge to UK in this one game.

Too much size at every position for UK, and their rebounding is awesome. It's the only consistent strength they've had all year.

I will agree that if Louisville is hitting 3s (or if UK is missing a lot of them), I give the edge back to Louisville.

As to the fouls, there's no doubt that Pitino coaches them to push the envelope of hand checking on the dribble. They see what they can get away with, and their strategy is to adapt to the refs call. If the refs are calling it loose (i.e. not following the letter of the rule and letting them put their hands on people), then Louisville's press is a lot more effective. UK gets away with hand fouls as well at times, but the difference is theirs are usually on offense. They like to push off to create space and it bothers me to see it. I don't think the refs have called them enough on it.