It will last longer than you think. 2016 futures have the price of a barrel at 65 bucks. LOTS and LOTS can change between now and then, but the commodity traders generally "know" something.
I'm more worried about what 65 bucks/barrel is doing to the bakken fields out West. Those towns will be ghost towns in 18 months, as they need to make about 70 bucks/barrel to break even. Those numbers are old, and the infrastructure has already been built, so maybe it is not that much, but I don't think NEW fields will be opened anytime soon.
Later,
Geo




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