FnF question

[elnutsmalljaws]

I don't use tip sheets and try to avoid looking at the tote board. The horse does not know its odds and the odds are set by the people sitting around you. Someone that studies his butt off and knows the business that places $2 to win on a horse has just as much effect on the odds as the little old lady that always bets $2 to win on the Black horse or the jockey with green in his silks. I find that when I bet horses due to the tote board due to early action or late action or overall odds in general, I LOSE. One thing I do know, is that betting horses is about 30% knowledge and 70% numbers. Winning at horse racing is about 70% total betting, which includes the actual picks, discipline and money management, and about 30% Luck. Just like any form of gambling, luck plays a role in it, but you can narrow the luck percentage based on your knowledge and type of bet. Self Discipline plays a huge part in gambling. I take in what I can afford to lose, I do not get money out of he ATM when that is gone, I have a number in my head that when I exceed that in winnings off to the car I go. Follow these rules and the most you lose is what you can afford to lose. I am not a pedigree handicapper, therfore I stay away from 2 year old baby races, I don't like trip handicapping which is what a lot of grass races are so I don't load up on them, route races on dirt are not my favorite so they are not loaded up either, my favorite is the 6f claiming race. I know the fractions as far as when they are/have went too fast or too slow. Number play a part in every decision I make. I don't bet names, jockeys or trainers. I do take into consideration the jockey and trainer but don't just bet them by name. I bet the horse. I missed this years Ky Derby Superfecta which paid a small fortune because I did not bet Bluegrass Cat. My wife could not belive I would have 4 of the first 5 finishers and not have a horse named Bluegrass Cat being a HUGE Ky Wildcat fan from the Bluegrass State. I told her I bet horses with head numbers not names. I take into a million pieces of information to spit out a horse or combination of horses. I love numbers and always have and it is basically decifering a bunch of numbers for the most part. Many years of studying losing races after the fact to see what I missed on a horse, which I very rarely see people doing. Most lose and on to the next race. I lose and especially when I am not even close will look at the race again to see what in the hell did I miss on that horse to make sure I don't do it again. Hope this helps.

[Devils Horse]

Not really needing help, just curious. I don't have the huevos to make big enough bets to win (or loose) a lot of money. Sides, like you I have a family to support. Back when I did bet the ponies, things I considered were similar to what you do and the same basic rules applied. I agree it should be all numbers.

The variables as I saw them were things like a horse's recent performance in races of this length/type, his times, his tendency to bump and grind, trainer, jockey, performance under current track conditions, moving up/down/staying in class, and so forth. I'd take the racing form and plug horses into my mental formula by trying to give a score between 1 and 10 on each variable. Highest scores get the bets. I've killed a lot of brain cells since those days but as I remember, it worked pretty well.

My system was of course 'somewhat' imperfect for many reasons. Hot tips from track buddies or strangers...my own generally misguided hunches...beer...females (humans not horses)...etc.

It never occurred to me to do a causal analysis when I lost bets though. That's pretty intteresting.

Anyway, I've noted the dates when you're heading to Dale maybe I'll see you out there or give you a holler to see how it's going. Had a big brown girl break my heart at the KBF state championship on Green weekend before last, so I'm looking for revenge.

[KScrappie1]

Hey Dacker, I showed your FnF video during a seminar I did on the new Shakespeare Wonderpole last weekend. Don't underestimate yourself, this is a good video with a lot of imformative information on the FnF. I gave out your contact information to several anglers at the seminar that asked where they could get a copy of the video. I plan to continue using your video at my seminars (if you don't mind) to show the optional uses for the Shakespeare Wonderpoles.

Bill

[smljaw]

I ended up buying that FnF rod from BPShops. I opened it up last night. I ordered the 8'6" rod and it's the real deal for $30, that's for sure. I can't wait to give it a try.

I think I'm hitting Cumberland on 11/18 or 19. Do you thing the FnF will be on at this time? If not, what other baits will work well? We will likely spend our day up near the dam and Indian Creek area.

Thank you all for the FnF info. I'm leaning toward the 3 way method with Fireline and Vanish.

[dpage70]

I've been looking at the rods that people have suggested here too and I think i'm leaning toward that BPS rod too. We have a BPS dealer here in town so I can order it from him with no shipping. Or at least I think that's what he said. Anyway once you try it out let me know how it feels if you don't mind.