Tough year to start the fly. For what I know, there has only been one small stretch when the temps dropped below 50 this winter and that was for very few days in Mid December and the bite was pretty decent for me. With both the water temps and air temps fluxuating like it has, it has delayed the turnover as well. The FNF needs cold clear water to be at its best. The weeks in December when it was above 60 did not help it at all and really delayed the bite. I like to fish it when it hits 50 for the first time then fish it all winter thereafter. This usually happens right after the turnover happens which is usually within the first 10 days or so of December. A couple of weeks ago the water was still black below First Island and still colored above First Island which tells me the turnover had not completely happened yet, when it is usually done by the end of November or so. With the cold snap that is coming thru today and the fact that they are calling for highs in the 40's and some lows in the teens over the next 10 days the bite should pick up pretty fast. My guess is that the end of the month it should be pretty good and I have made this guess every time I seen a cold forecast like the one that is out now. It all depends on the weather. Stick with it, for it will produce some really good fish when the water temp and clarity is right. Look for the days when it is sleeting, raining, overcast with a slight ripple and then load the boat with 3+ pounders all day long.