Preakness Picks

[RoadToad]

I should preface this by saying I can't claim to be any good at handicapping. I worked on the backside for a long time, was good at what I did, and had the privilege of working around some of the best horses of their day, but was never any good at betting on them. That said, I just can't get on the Rachel Alexandra Preakness bandwagon. First and foremost, she's a filly running against the boys. That stacks the odds against her right there. It has been 85 years since a filly won the Preakness: http://www.horse-races.net/library/preak-fillies.htm and for good reason. This may be "old school" thinking, but I've never liked seeing fillies ran against the boys until they're 4yo mares who have already beaten all comers, and have nothing else to prove. Running them against the boys when they're young usually gets them beat, and beat up, and nowhere is this true more than the Preakness. The last filly to start in it was Excellent Meeting in 1999, who pulled up. Before that you have Winning Colors and Genuine Risk, both of whom were beaten favorites, and neither did much of anything as four-year-olds. Before that, you have to go back to 1939, when racing was an entirely different game than it is today.

I'm hoping that Rachel's connections rethink their strategy, and pass on the Preakness. IMHO, that would be in her best interests. If that happens, Calvin will end up on Mine That Bird (Chip Woolley has said he IS going to name Calvin as his rider, and see what happens), and I think it would be a big mistake to throw him out.

[Grumpy]

RoadToad, with one exception, I agree with every thing you said, especially about why Fillies should not run with the boys. And that is especially true with Rachel.I am a big fan of Cindy and had already seen her writeup but thanks for posting it for others to see, I hadn't thought to do that.

The exception I take is with your statement that "it would be a big mistake to throw (Mine that Bird) out. If I couldn't see any reason to not throw him out of my bets in the Derby at 50-1 (and he was one of the first I threw out) I can't see any reason to include him in my Preakness bets at 2-1 or better, just because he won the Derby. I just can't see any reason to bet on him now or ever. I may lose again but that surely won't be a first.

Grumpy

[BubbaBass1]

Borel rode both horses, he chose the filly over the derby winner. He probably knows a little more than any of us.

just my 2 cents

BB1

[RoadToad]

Here are some facts to keep in mind as Preakness Day approaches:

1) Forecast is for rain; 60% chance of t-storms. Unless I missed something, only one horse in the field has ever won a stakes race in the slop.

2) Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneerof the Nile, Take the Points, Tone It Down, and Rachel all have shown early speed in the past. I'm not saying that all seven of them will be fighting for the lead going into the first turn, but whoever wants it is going to have to fight for it. And that's exactly what Mine That Bird's connections will be hoping for: a speed duel up front to set things up for a closer. I foresee a fast opening quarter and half.

3) See my previous post on how the Preakness has historically been extremely tough on fillies.

4) On the subject of history, look at the recent history of Derby winners in the Preakness. It's pretty auspicious.

I know you guys are saying, "He didn't belong in the Derby, so he doesn't belong in the Preakness." Or, "His win in the Derby was a fluke; no way he'll repeat." I respectfully disagree. He annihilated a field of colts, not filles that day, and there wasn't anything "fluke-ish" about it. Yes, he got a good ride, and a good trip, but if you look at that overheard view of the Derby, it's obvious he was much the best that day.

OK, one more thing, then I'll (try to) shut up on the subject. Calvin is a real good jock, and by all accounts, a great guy, and if he wins the Preakness, I'll be happy for him. But I still wish they had picked another venue to try Rachel against the boys.

[Grumpy]

OK RoadToad, you talked me into it!! I only bet Exlotics so when I go to Churchill Saturday, to watch the Preakness Simulcast, I will do a Trifecta Key with MIND THAT BIRD to win and PIONEER OF THE NILE, FRIESAN FIRE, MUSKET MAN, and FLYING PRIVATE in the Place and Show positions.

Good Luck,

Grumpy

[RoadToad]

Wow, I did NOT see that coming.

You're actually going to make a bet based an MY analysis? Yikes!!

Best of luck whatever you bet.

[Grumpy]

RoadToad, I don't know why you are surprised, you have been assuring me that he was going to win. I am going to the Credit Union tomorrow and I will cash in whats left of my 401K; I will cash in a couple of my CDs; see what kind of home equity loan I can get on such short notice--THAN I WILL PUT IT ALL ON MINE THAT BIRD.

Grumpy

[Chubminnow]

Ok boys...here she goes...it's about 15 or 20 minutes before post time here...I'm putting my money on Rachel...Mine That Bird...and General Quarters (gotta bet this horse just because of the story behind it). Trifecta Box.

Riders Up!!!

[RoadToad]

What a performance! She's a sensational filly alright. She didn't even like that track, and still was never seriously threatened. This could be one of the best Belmonts ever, if she goes.

Remember how I said I'm no good at betting on them? You'd think after everything I posted I would have had that exacta... Nope, didn't bet a dime. Stayed home and watched it on tv. Truth be told, I rarely bet at all any more...

[Grumpy]

My goodness, RoadToad, now you are jumping on the filliy's bandwagon. You convinced me that MINE THAT BIRD was going to win and I bet my life savings, my home and every penny I could borrow on him and he comes in Second. You are as fickle as the Filly and I am never going to listen to you again. At least not about horses.

With that I'll let go of your leg.

Grumpy

[psprowler]

Man we were in Texas Roadhouse and about 10 minutes before the start of the race the satellite mysteriously had an error - something about not authorized outside the local viewing are or something to that effect. Now mind you WAVE3 had been on the entire time we were waiting to be seated. I looked at Jerry and said "I guarantee you that satellite comes back on when the winning horse/jockey are being led to the winners circle" (or whatever it's called). Sure enough it came back on as they were handing that big bunch of yellow flowers to the jockey. Is there some sort of "blackout" criteria? We were in Clarksville. Or was it just coincidence?

Should be a good Belmont.

[Tim_T]

Man we were in Texas Roadhouse and about 10 minutes before the start of the race the satellite mysteriously had an error - something about not authorized outside the local viewing are or something to that effect. Now mind you WAVE3 had been on the entire time we were waiting to be seated. I looked at Jerry and said "I guarantee you that satellite comes back on when the winning horse/jockey are being led to the winners circle" (or whatever it's called). Sure enough it came back on as they were handing that big bunch of yellow flowers to the jockey. Is there some sort of "blackout" criteria? We were in Clarksville. Or was it just coincidence?

Should be a good Belmont.

Prowler, it should not have been a problem, WAVE 3 is the NBC affiliate and that is who had the broadcast rights to the race. Not sure what happened there.