Preakness Picks

[BubbaBass1]

Borel rode both horses, he chose the filly over the derby winner. He probably knows a little more than any of us.

just my 2 cents

BB1

[RoadToad]

Here are some facts to keep in mind as Preakness Day approaches:

1) Forecast is for rain; 60% chance of t-storms. Unless I missed something, only one horse in the field has ever won a stakes race in the slop.

2) Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneerof the Nile, Take the Points, Tone It Down, and Rachel all have shown early speed in the past. I'm not saying that all seven of them will be fighting for the lead going into the first turn, but whoever wants it is going to have to fight for it. And that's exactly what Mine That Bird's connections will be hoping for: a speed duel up front to set things up for a closer. I foresee a fast opening quarter and half.

3) See my previous post on how the Preakness has historically been extremely tough on fillies.

4) On the subject of history, look at the recent history of Derby winners in the Preakness. It's pretty auspicious.

I know you guys are saying, "He didn't belong in the Derby, so he doesn't belong in the Preakness." Or, "His win in the Derby was a fluke; no way he'll repeat." I respectfully disagree. He annihilated a field of colts, not filles that day, and there wasn't anything "fluke-ish" about it. Yes, he got a good ride, and a good trip, but if you look at that overheard view of the Derby, it's obvious he was much the best that day.

OK, one more thing, then I'll (try to) shut up on the subject. Calvin is a real good jock, and by all accounts, a great guy, and if he wins the Preakness, I'll be happy for him. But I still wish they had picked another venue to try Rachel against the boys.

[Grumpy]

OK RoadToad, you talked me into it!! I only bet Exlotics so when I go to Churchill Saturday, to watch the Preakness Simulcast, I will do a Trifecta Key with MIND THAT BIRD to win and PIONEER OF THE NILE, FRIESAN FIRE, MUSKET MAN, and FLYING PRIVATE in the Place and Show positions.

Good Luck,

Grumpy

[RoadToad]

Wow, I did NOT see that coming.

You're actually going to make a bet based an MY analysis? Yikes!!

Best of luck whatever you bet.

[Grumpy]

RoadToad, I don't know why you are surprised, you have been assuring me that he was going to win. I am going to the Credit Union tomorrow and I will cash in whats left of my 401K; I will cash in a couple of my CDs; see what kind of home equity loan I can get on such short notice--THAN I WILL PUT IT ALL ON MINE THAT BIRD.

Grumpy

[Chubminnow]

Ok boys...here she goes...it's about 15 or 20 minutes before post time here...I'm putting my money on Rachel...Mine That Bird...and General Quarters (gotta bet this horse just because of the story behind it). Trifecta Box.

Riders Up!!!

[RoadToad]

What a performance! She's a sensational filly alright. She didn't even like that track, and still was never seriously threatened. This could be one of the best Belmonts ever, if she goes.

Remember how I said I'm no good at betting on them? You'd think after everything I posted I would have had that exacta... Nope, didn't bet a dime. Stayed home and watched it on tv. Truth be told, I rarely bet at all any more...

[Grumpy]

My goodness, RoadToad, now you are jumping on the filliy's bandwagon. You convinced me that MINE THAT BIRD was going to win and I bet my life savings, my home and every penny I could borrow on him and he comes in Second. You are as fickle as the Filly and I am never going to listen to you again. At least not about horses.

With that I'll let go of your leg.

Grumpy

[psprowler]

Man we were in Texas Roadhouse and about 10 minutes before the start of the race the satellite mysteriously had an error - something about not authorized outside the local viewing are or something to that effect. Now mind you WAVE3 had been on the entire time we were waiting to be seated. I looked at Jerry and said "I guarantee you that satellite comes back on when the winning horse/jockey are being led to the winners circle" (or whatever it's called). Sure enough it came back on as they were handing that big bunch of yellow flowers to the jockey. Is there some sort of "blackout" criteria? We were in Clarksville. Or was it just coincidence?

Should be a good Belmont.

[Tim_T]

Man we were in Texas Roadhouse and about 10 minutes before the start of the race the satellite mysteriously had an error - something about not authorized outside the local viewing are or something to that effect. Now mind you WAVE3 had been on the entire time we were waiting to be seated. I looked at Jerry and said "I guarantee you that satellite comes back on when the winning horse/jockey are being led to the winners circle" (or whatever it's called). Sure enough it came back on as they were handing that big bunch of yellow flowers to the jockey. Is there some sort of "blackout" criteria? We were in Clarksville. Or was it just coincidence?

Should be a good Belmont.

Prowler, it should not have been a problem, WAVE 3 is the NBC affiliate and that is who had the broadcast rights to the race. Not sure what happened there.

[psprowler]

We used to get those errors on our satellite too. Switched to cable a couple of months ago.
Bad timing I guess.

What do you guys think about the Phillies (as in female horse, not the ones from Philadelphia)(sp?) being able to run 5 pounds lighter than their male horse counterparts? Big deal or not?

[RoadToad]

We used to get those errors on our satellite too. Switched to cable a couple of months ago.
Bad timing I guess.

What do you guys think about the Phillies (as in female horse, not the ones from Philadelphia)(sp?) being able to run 5 pounds lighter than their male horse counterparts? Big deal or not?

"Big deal?" Hmmmm I guess that depends on what you mean by big deal. The "conventional wisdom" is that one pound = one length. So, if that's true, then Rachel would have gotten beat without the five pound weight allowance. I'm not saying that it's true, it's just the "conventional wisdom." I don't think it's going to make a big difference in the Belmont. She's going to like that track a whole lot better than she did Pimlico. The surface is a lot kinder than Pimlico's, in fact it's quite similar to Churchill. And Pimlico has real sharp turns, and a short stretch compared to Churchill. Belmont, being a 1 1/2 mile oval, has nice wide, sweeping turns, and is one of the more "honest" tracks around, by which I mean that the surface itself is rarely what gets horses beat. Here's a little factoid for ya: Belmont's rail is DEAD if it's sloppy. So about the only thing I see getting Rachel beat is it's sloppy, and she gets stuck down there on the rail. Unless that happens, I don't think it matters if she carries 5 lbs MORE than the boys; she's just much the best.