Here are some facts to keep in mind as Preakness Day approaches:

1) Forecast is for rain; 60% chance of t-storms. Unless I missed something, only one horse in the field has ever won a stakes race in the slop.

2) Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem, Pioneerof the Nile, Take the Points, Tone It Down, and Rachel all have shown early speed in the past. I'm not saying that all seven of them will be fighting for the lead going into the first turn, but whoever wants it is going to have to fight for it. And that's exactly what Mine That Bird's connections will be hoping for: a speed duel up front to set things up for a closer. I foresee a fast opening quarter and half.

3) See my previous post on how the Preakness has historically been extremely tough on fillies.

4) On the subject of history, look at the recent history of Derby winners in the Preakness. It's pretty auspicious.

I know you guys are saying, "He didn't belong in the Derby, so he doesn't belong in the Preakness." Or, "His win in the Derby was a fluke; no way he'll repeat." I respectfully disagree. He annihilated a field of colts, not filles that day, and there wasn't anything "fluke-ish" about it. Yes, he got a good ride, and a good trip, but if you look at that overheard view of the Derby, it's obvious he was much the best that day.

OK, one more thing, then I'll (try to) shut up on the subject. Calvin is a real good jock, and by all accounts, a great guy, and if he wins the Preakness, I'll be happy for him. But I still wish they had picked another venue to try Rachel against the boys.