Belmont Stakes

[Grumpy]

OK, as RoadToad noted on the Preakness post, Rachel Alaxendra is not running in the Belmont on June 6th, which means that Calvin BoRail will priobably be back on Mine that Bird, so lets hear your picks for the top four.

My top picks are: Charitable Man, Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff and Chocolate Candy.

Grumpy

[RoadToad]

Mine That Bird, Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, and Charitable Man.

[Grumpy]

I saw on DRF where Todd Plecher, trainer of Dunkirk, said that Charitable Man is the one to beat and they are considering running a rabbit to get a hot pace.

Grumpy

[Chubminnow]

Grumpy - How can you not include Mine That Bird in the exotics?

[Grumpy]

ChubMinnow, because his breeding says he can't go a mile and a quarter so I have a lot of trouble betting on him to go a mile and a half. Yes, I know he won the Derby at a mile and a quarter but I still think it was a fluke and several improbable things coming together (good for him and bad for the others) that allowed him to win the Derby. Then when he wasn't able to beat a filly at a shorter distance, why should I believe that he can beat, or even stay up with, several better FRESH horses? If he wins, my hat is off to Borel but I am not going to put any money on him, unless I do a Superfecta, then I might put him on the bottom,.

Grumpy

[RoadToad]

ChubMinnow, because his breeding says he can't go a mile and a quarter so I have a lot of trouble betting on him to go a mile and a half. Yes, I know he won the Derby at a mile and a quarter but I still think it was a fluke and several improbable things coming together (good for him and bad for the others) that allowed him to win the Derby. Then when he wasn't able to beat a filly at a shorter distance, why should I believe that he can beat, or even stay up with, several better FRESH horses? If he wins, my hat is off to Borel but I am not going to put any money on him, unless I do a Superfecta, then I might put him on the bottom,.

Grumpy

There's nothing in his pedigree to suggest he won't go the distance. On the contrary, everything in it says the farther they run, the better he'll like it, as does his running style. Too bad the Jockey Club Gold Cup isn't a mile and three quarters any more (but that's a whole 'nother sad story there). Hell, if he ends up liking the grass, I'd like to see him try the San Juan Capistrano. Anyway, Mine That Bird is by Birdstone, who won the Travers and the Belmont, and was himself bred to go long. On his dam side, well, she was unraced, but she's by Smart Strike (sire of Curlin) out of a Vice Regent mare that won the Canadian Oaks. If you're not going to bet on him, fine, I'm not going to try to talk you into it. In fact, I'll probably just watch him win without betting, too. But don't leave him out because of his pedigree.

[Grumpy]

What's the matter Roadtoad? You talked me into betting on Mine that Bird in the Preakness and I lost my home, my 401K, my life's savings and, oh yes, my SHIRT. I have nothing left to lose and now you back off and say you won't try to talk me into it!! Come on, I have to have someone to blame if I lose again.

Grumpy

[Chubminnow]

Grumpy - Heck man, go with your first instinct...I don't know how many times I've said after a race was over: "Dag gone man, I had those numbers wrote down but I changed my stupid bet at the last minute, I should have bet what I said I was going to bet in the first place!!"

But then too, how can you not consider Mine That Bird? LOL...After the Preakness do you have anything left at all of at least some value, maybe some old worn out lawn mower blades, perhaps a rusty shovel, maybe some of those free tooth brushes they give away at the dentist office, anything of value at all?

[Chubminnow]

How come Borel rode the philly in the Preakness instead of Mine That Bird? It seems to me he would have rode the horse he won the Derby with. Also...looking back at the Preakness Mine That Bird came in second, a closing second behind the top horse. Hindsight is 20/20 Shoulda, woulda, coulda but I believe if the Preakness was a tad bit longer Mine That Bird would have beat that Philly.

[Grumpy]

Thanks for the idea, Chubminnow, I sold my lawnmower to my neighbor for $42.00. So figuring that the Belmont is going to be a nine horse field, I am going to bet a $1.00 Trifecta Part Wheel on Charitable Man and Mine that Bird, to be in 1st and 2nd slots with ALL in the Show slot, which will cost $14.00; then I will make the same bet two more times with the ALL in the Win slot and then in the Place slot with MTB and CM in the other places in each bet for a total cost of $42.00. Unless one of the ALLs wins, it won't pay a lot put it puts the odds of winning something in my favor. Of course, MTB and CM must be in the money or I lose again.

Grumpy

[RoadToad]

How come Borel rode the philly in the Preakness instead of Mine That Bird? It seems to me he would have rode the horse he won the Derby with.

He rode the filly because he thought he had the best chance of winning on her. Turns out he was right. In fact, Calvin has said she's the best horse he ever rode. She's certainly something special.

I guess you guys are aware of this, but if Calvin wins the Belmont on Mine That Bird he'll be the first jockey ever to win the Triple Crown who wasn't on the same horse all three legs. And I doubt if that'll happen again for a looong time.

[Grumpy]

I doubt if it will happen THIS TIME!!

Grumpy