Quote Originally Posted by RoadToad View Post
I agree about Eskendereya. He deserves to be the favorite. But he'll probably be too short of a price for me. BUT that doesn't mean there isn't a bet to be found. I think Ice Box is a real talented closer who''ll be running at the end, and can get the distance. There should be plenty of speed in the race, and I think Zito is in fact trying to help ensure that by running Ice Box's stablemate Jackson Bend as a rabbit (notice the main owner is the same). My prediction is that Ice Box will be moving forward at the end, and if Eskendereya has a bad day, he could well pull off the upset. And I think a show bet on Ice Box will pay more than a win bet on Eskendereya.

Prediction: Eskendereya to win.
KY Derby Bet: $5 Win, $20 Show on Ice Box, $2 Exacta Box Eskendereya/Ice Box.

Not sure if Eskendereya will go to the post as the favorite or not. It will be real close between him and Lookin at Lucky. Mike Battaglia will have a bit to say about the eventual outcome because he sets the morning line for the Derby and all the "novices" that come to the track use this at times for their betting. I hope he makes Lookin the favorite at somewhere around 4-1 and Eskendereya the second choice at 9-2. Depending on the public play and also the BIG TICKET BETTORS, Esk could be 7-2 or 5-1 at post time. I hope there are thousands of the Derby Day only bettors that see 'lucky" in the name and it is picked in the top 2 so that is their horse to bet. Each case of these will improves Esk's odds.


http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...contenders.pdf

After a QUICK look at the PP's at 3am half asleep - and I see the following:

Rule, Sidney Candy, Line of Daid, Conveyance, American Lion, Super Saver, Endorsement will ALL insure a fast past. These horses need to be 1 or 2 early in the battle to have a shot and with 7 of them here, the pace will be fast like 22 and 4, 45 and 4, 1:11 and change which will set it up for the horses mid pack and downtown closers.

ESKENDEREYA - tactical speed will be laying somewhere between 8th and 14th most of the race, then at the top of the stretch he will be 4th on the outside and when the running starts from there his Giants Causeway Daddy pedigree of running all day long kicks in and he wins for fun.

My BOMB play could be Mission Impazible - 4th race back after a 9 month layoff, sits mid pack and puts in a late kick, actually lost ground during the middle of the LA Derby and still came back to win. Should improve and Unbridled Song as a Daddy does not hurt the cause.

Backtalk is another BOMB play. Closer that closes with a pace. Ill Derby had absolutely NO pace and his running style was compromised. His Daddy Smarty Jones won the Derby a couple of years ago and with the 7 rabbits in this race could hit the board.

Ice Box is a DOWNTOWN closer. Needs and must get a fast pace to be a factor. He will get it but I think he will be getting last run on the leaders from as far back as he sits. Pulpit Daddy puts a little question in my mind about the mile and a quarter distance but DEEP closers have always had a shot at the board or 4th for the super.

Eskendereya to win
Eskendereya / Mission Impazible straight Exactas
Eskendereya over
Mission Impazible, Ice Box, Backtalk,
in the bomb trifecta.

5 minutes of handicapping and half asleep to boot, but a dead tired half asleep guy can see Eskendereya is the best horse that will be entered in the Derby.