The Preakness

[redneckshadrap]

1 Aikenite Dogwood Stable Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano Brylynn Farm Inc. 20-1
2 Schoolyard Dreams Eric Fein & Anthony Mitola Derek S. Ryan Eibar Coa John E. Little 15-1
3 Pleasant Prince Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey Wesley Ward Julien Leparoux Adena Springs 20-1
4 Northern Giant Westrock Stables LLC D. Wayne Lukas Terry Thompson Dell Ridge Farm LLC & Ashford Stud 30-1
5 Yawanna Twist Steel Your Face Stable Rick Dutrow Edgar Prado Steel Your Face Stable 30-1
6 Jackson Bend Robert La Penta & Fred J. Brei Nick Zito Mike Smith Jacks or Better Farm 12-1
7 Lookin At Lucky Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman Bob Baffert Martin Garcia Gulf Coast Farms 3-1
8 Super Saver WinStar Farms LLC Todd Pletcher Calvin Borel WinStar Farms LLC 5-2
9 Caracortado Blahut Racing & Hi Lo Racing Mike Machowsky Paul Atkinson Mike Machowsky 10-1
10 Paddy O'Prado Donegal Racing Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC 9-2
11 First Dude Donald R. Dizney Dale Romans Ramon Dominguez Donald R. Dizney 20-1
12 Dublin Robert Baker & William Mac D. Wayne Lukas Garrett Gomez Peter Blum & Gary Dilger 10-1

[redneckshadrap]

Everybody's screamin SuperSaver....but Gomez isn't riding Lookin@Lucky in this one. And the 8-9 posts are scary....

[psprowler]

I'll go with Paddy O'Prado in this one.

[Big Gills]

I always cheer for Calvin Borel cuz I love his spunk, his southern accent and southern pride. I think he works hard and gets to know the horses he rides. He has his own style riding the rail and if the other jockeys let him do that he will win. He said in an interview recently that he is going to win the triple Crown.
Of course being Irish I also will route for Paddy O'Prado and Dublin. No bets for me but I enjoy watching the races.

[elnutsmalljaws]

Lookin at Lucky will NEVER be 14-18 lengths behind Super Saver at any point in the Preakness like he was in the Derby. Plus the post positions are even and Lookin is the better horse of the two. I will take Lookin at Lucky over Super Saver and Jackson Bend in the exactas. Lookin at Lucky over Super Saver / Jackson Bend / Paddy O Prado in the Tris. Won't pay much unless Jackson Bend can get second but usually when a bunch of nobody's come to the Preakness that did not run in the Derby then you end up with the better horses that finished in the Derby running 1-2-3in the Preakness. This is the case this year because none of the newcomers have any credentials to upset the top 4 out of the Derby. I still say Eskendereya is head and shoulders above all the other 3 years I have seen this year and it is a real shame he got hurt because he is THE REAL DEAL. History has shown that newcomers showing up in the triple crown races that did not run in the Derby do better in the Belmont as opposed to the Preakness. I think you need to run in the Derby and run decent to have a shot at the Preakness. With only 2 weeks between the two, what horse owner and trainer that has a horse good enough would bypass the Derby for the Preakness? Take the horses that ran in the Derby and leave out the rest.

[RoadToad]

1 Aikenite Dogwood Stable Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano Brylynn Farm Inc. 20-1
2 Schoolyard Dreams Eric Fein & Anthony Mitola Derek S. Ryan Eibar Coa John E. Little 15-1
3 Pleasant Prince Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey Wesley Ward Julien Leparoux Adena Springs 20-1
4 Northern Giant Westrock Stables LLC D. Wayne Lukas Terry Thompson Dell Ridge Farm LLC & Ashford Stud 30-1
5 Yawanna Twist Steel Your Face Stable Rick Dutrow Edgar Prado Steel Your Face Stable 30-1
6 Jackson Bend Robert La Penta & Fred J. Brei Nick Zito Mike Smith Jacks or Better Farm 12-1
7 Lookin At Lucky Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman Bob Baffert Martin Garcia Gulf Coast Farms 3-1
8 Super Saver WinStar Farms LLC Todd Pletcher Calvin Borel WinStar Farms LLC 5-2
9 Caracortado Blahut Racing & Hi Lo Racing Mike Machowsky Paul Atkinson Mike Machowsky 10-1
10 Paddy O'Prado Donegal Racing Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC 9-2
11 First Dude Donald R. Dizney Dale Romans Ramon Dominguez Donald R. Dizney 20-1
12 Dublin Robert Baker & William Mac D. Wayne Lukas Garrett Gomez Peter Blum & Gary Dilger 10-1

I haven't begun to try and handicap this race yet, but hats off to you for posting your prediction for the complete order of finish. Mine stops at who I think will hit the board.

[psprowler]

I don't know jack about horse racing but I like to read how you guys break the races down....

[mhall]

I don't know jack about horse racing but I like to read how you guys break the races down....

Me to............................................GO BOREL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[redneckshadrap]

I actually look for a duel between Gomez and Bob...Each trying to prove the other wrong. And Lucas maybe licking his chops....The only thing SuperSaver will see is Lookin@Lucky's brown eye...and I'm really pulling for a Triple C winner.

"Take the horses that ran in the Derby and leave out the rest. "

AMEN!

I will be putting the 5 horse in because his father is also Fish's father.......He's raced 4 times...2 wins..2 seconds....was beaten by 2 Derby runners..decent speed....and is 30-1...LOL!!!!!

My exacta picks 7,5,12 7,8,5
1 super straight( I do this because it's like the lottery and I'm cheap) 7-8-12-5 5-2-7-8


14 dollars ...told you I'm cheap.....

[elnutsmalljaws]

I haven't begun to try and handicap this race yet, but hats off to you for posting your prediction for the complete order of finish. Mine stops at who I think will hit the board.

Sorry Toad, that is the Post Position Draw not the predicted order of finish.

[elnutsmalljaws]

My handicapping breakdown of the Preakness:

Pimilico is a tight turn usually speed favoring track. Those on the front end seem to hold on a little longer and those coming from far off the pace seen to never get there - Based on HISTORY. This Preakness DOES NOT HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF LEGIT SPEED IN THE RACE. For the first time in a long time, the Preakness does not have a sure fire front end speed horse. I would love to see a horse like Rule in this race because he would be my play. Super Saver is the only horse that has shown true front end speed but he only broke his maiden and won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile on the front end and lost the rest of the races when making the lead early. Super's best race was the KY Derby in where he set behind the speed, made one move and won the race - even though he was not he best horse in the race ICE BOX was. With no speed in the race Super may just find himself one the lead, without a target to shoot at and I don't think that is HIS best running style. Horses like Jackson Bend, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O Prado, and Dublin will all be closer to the pace than in the Derby as well and all of them should improve based on this. A horse like Schoolyard Dreams who sat 1 length behind Rule (A class speed horse) in the Tampa Derby 3 starts back may be pressing the pace early if not setting the pace early. Paddy O Prado was head bobbing early in the Palm Beach and only a lenght back early in the Bluegrass will be involved early as well. All of this being said - THERE IS NO TRUE FRONT RUNNER THAT LIKES TO WIN FROM THE FRONT END IN THE PREAKNESS FIELD.

Early on Paddy O Prado, Super Saver, Schoolyard Dreams and First Dude will be up close for the first half of the race. With Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Yawanna Twist, Jackson Bend and Caracortado in the 2nd Tier of horses. Dublin, Pleasant Prince and Northern Giant will be in the final tier of horses.

3/4 pole and First Dude and Schoolyard Dreams will be dropping out of it as well as Aikenite. Pleasant Prince and Nothern Giant probably should not be in the race to begin with and will never be involved at any point in the race. Dublin will be far back early and with no real late closing kick in a paceless race will compromise his chances. These are probably your last 6 finishers of the race.

This leaves Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Caracortado, Paddy O Prado, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist. Of these, Lookin, Super, Paddy and Jackson all figure based on their races prior to the Derby and none of them did anything in the Derby to completely throw them out here. Caracortado ran as good a race if not a BETTER race in the Santa Anita Derby as did Lookin at Lucky. Both of them were steadied at the 5/16th pole, both of them lost a monster amount of ground but Caracortado made up more of that lost ground than Lookin even though running behind him. If you like Lookin at Lucky then you have to like Caracortado based on that race alone. The layoff for Caracortado concernse me but he had a maintenance workout at the end of April, a very good blowout drill the first of May and then a 7f maintenance workout last week for a decent trainer with a small barn and a decen up and coming jockey in Paul Atkinson. Yawanna Twist is my BOMB LONGSHOT play. I love Richard Dutrow and Edgar Prado has kicked home many a horse in the big races. Yawann went 5 wide 2 back and just missed, was up close to a slow pace last out and missed but that is not his style. He will have a better target to run at and has a decent kick. Could hit at BIG ODDS.

I love Lookin at Lucky in this spot. He has the perfect running style that he does not have to change in this race, he was probably the second best horse in the Derby behind Ice Box after getting crushed at the start, blocked and steadied in mid stretch and still closed to finish 6th from the 1 hole in a 20 horse field. When the running starts at the top of the stretch, you will have Super Saver and Paddy O Prado on the lead with Jackson Bend dropping out of it, Lookin at Lucky, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist will be making their move and it is up to the best horse from there. Distance will not be a question nor will the size of the field or PP positions so it is a pretty even match. I will take:

Lookin at Lucky to win
Caracortado, Super Saver, Yawanna Twist for second
Same 3 plus Jackson Bend and Paddy O Prado for third in the tri's
Save 5 for 4th in the super's

Saver Ticket would be

Caracortado to win
Lookin at Lucky for second
Jackson Bend, Paddo O Prado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver for third and forth

I don't think Lookin at Lucky finishes no worse than second in this race.

Exacta Bets

Lookin at Lucky over Caracortado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver

Caracortado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver over Lookin at Lucky

Exacta Box - Caracortado and Lookin at Lucky


This is how I see the race.

[RoadToad]

Sorry Toad, that is the Post Position Draw not the predicted order of finish.

LOL!! I really need to stop posting when I drink.