My handicapping breakdown of the Preakness:
Pimilico is a tight turn usually speed favoring track. Those on the front end seem to hold on a little longer and those coming from far off the pace seen to never get there - Based on HISTORY. This Preakness DOES NOT HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF LEGIT SPEED IN THE RACE. For the first time in a long time, the Preakness does not have a sure fire front end speed horse. I would love to see a horse like Rule in this race because he would be my play. Super Saver is the only horse that has shown true front end speed but he only broke his maiden and won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile on the front end and lost the rest of the races when making the lead early. Super's best race was the KY Derby in where he set behind the speed, made one move and won the race - even though he was not he best horse in the race ICE BOX was. With no speed in the race Super may just find himself one the lead, without a target to shoot at and I don't think that is HIS best running style. Horses like Jackson Bend, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O Prado, and Dublin will all be closer to the pace than in the Derby as well and all of them should improve based on this. A horse like Schoolyard Dreams who sat 1 length behind Rule (A class speed horse) in the Tampa Derby 3 starts back may be pressing the pace early if not setting the pace early. Paddy O Prado was head bobbing early in the Palm Beach and only a lenght back early in the Bluegrass will be involved early as well. All of this being said - THERE IS NO TRUE FRONT RUNNER THAT LIKES TO WIN FROM THE FRONT END IN THE PREAKNESS FIELD.
Early on Paddy O Prado, Super Saver, Schoolyard Dreams and First Dude will be up close for the first half of the race. With Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Yawanna Twist, Jackson Bend and Caracortado in the 2nd Tier of horses. Dublin, Pleasant Prince and Northern Giant will be in the final tier of horses.
3/4 pole and First Dude and Schoolyard Dreams will be dropping out of it as well as Aikenite. Pleasant Prince and Nothern Giant probably should not be in the race to begin with and will never be involved at any point in the race. Dublin will be far back early and with no real late closing kick in a paceless race will compromise his chances. These are probably your last 6 finishers of the race.
This leaves Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver, Caracortado, Paddy O Prado, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist. Of these, Lookin, Super, Paddy and Jackson all figure based on their races prior to the Derby and none of them did anything in the Derby to completely throw them out here. Caracortado ran as good a race if not a BETTER race in the Santa Anita Derby as did Lookin at Lucky. Both of them were steadied at the 5/16th pole, both of them lost a monster amount of ground but Caracortado made up more of that lost ground than Lookin even though running behind him. If you like Lookin at Lucky then you have to like Caracortado based on that race alone. The layoff for Caracortado concernse me but he had a maintenance workout at the end of April, a very good blowout drill the first of May and then a 7f maintenance workout last week for a decent trainer with a small barn and a decen up and coming jockey in Paul Atkinson. Yawanna Twist is my BOMB LONGSHOT play. I love Richard Dutrow and Edgar Prado has kicked home many a horse in the big races. Yawann went 5 wide 2 back and just missed, was up close to a slow pace last out and missed but that is not his style. He will have a better target to run at and has a decent kick. Could hit at BIG ODDS.
I love Lookin at Lucky in this spot. He has the perfect running style that he does not have to change in this race, he was probably the second best horse in the Derby behind Ice Box after getting crushed at the start, blocked and steadied in mid stretch and still closed to finish 6th from the 1 hole in a 20 horse field. When the running starts at the top of the stretch, you will have Super Saver and Paddy O Prado on the lead with Jackson Bend dropping out of it, Lookin at Lucky, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist will be making their move and it is up to the best horse from there. Distance will not be a question nor will the size of the field or PP positions so it is a pretty even match. I will take:
Lookin at Lucky to win
Caracortado, Super Saver, Yawanna Twist for second
Same 3 plus Jackson Bend and Paddy O Prado for third in the tri's
Save 5 for 4th in the super's
Saver Ticket would be
Caracortado to win
Lookin at Lucky for second
Jackson Bend, Paddo O Prado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver for third and forth
I don't think Lookin at Lucky finishes no worse than second in this race.
Exacta Bets
Lookin at Lucky over Caracortado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver
Caracortado, Yawanna Twist, Super Saver over Lookin at Lucky
Exacta Box - Caracortado and Lookin at Lucky
This is how I see the race.
Reply With Quote