I would not bet any longshot in this race. I know with Lemon Drop Kid, Datara and others that paid Boxcars in the past but this race sets up different. There really is only 3 horses with a shot at winning the race. First Dude is lone speed and lone speed is DANGEROUS in any horse race. Lone speed can lope around on the front end setting the fractions that he wants then basically it is a sprint to the finish and with him up front and a speed horse has all the advantage. Fly Down will be stalking the pace but from a few lengths back in 4th or 5th but is the improving horse and the best shot at winning the race if he keeps on improving. His 99 Beyer in his last start is one of the best in the field, his running style could be an advantage over Ice Box plus his start 2 back in La, he went from 7 lengths back at the half, got steadied and dropped back 14 lengths off the pace and only lost by 6. You do the math and if he does not get steadied then he wins the race and would have made the Derby field with his graded stakes money. Improving horse with a win over the Belmont Strip in his last, a 99 speed rating plus with Johnny V riding, defineately a lot to like. People say the 1 1/2 mile race is difficult on the horse and that is true but you also have to factor in that there are VERY FEW 1 1/2 mile races on the dirt in the US and that is why horses are not bred to get the 1 1/2 but also this means the jockeys race in VERY FEW 1 1/2 mile races on the dirt. The dirt is not the same as the turf, where there are more distance races, and it is key for the jockey to push the button on the horse at the right time. Johnny V is experience, Ramon Dominguez on First Dude has the experience and will have the hardes job of all in when to push the button to let out some speed, save some, let some out and so forth and Jose Lezcano is an experience Belmont Rider on Ice Box as well. First Dude leads all the way until the 3/8 mile pole and Fly Down will make his move towards the lead with Ice Box a few lengths behind him. Ice Box and Fly Down both can out kick First Dude to the wire but it will depend on how much lead Dude has to begin with and how slow the pace he has set. The more I look at the race and I see it being between these 3 for the win and place spot and if you are wanting to play a longshot then it is Stately Victor. Stately Victor out of Ghostzapper and a Dynaformer Mare should be bred to get as much distance as any other horse in the race. Victor would be my longshot play in the race for a part, I don't think he can win but think he can run well enough to hit for 3rd or 4th.