Belmont Stakes Race

[RoadToad]

It's great to see Bill Mott get this win. He's a real good horseman, came up under the great Jack VanBerg, and is by all accounts a great guy. I've never worked for him, or even met him, but I had a lot of friends that did, and they always had good things to say about how he treated his horses, and his help. Notice he doesn't run a lot of horses in Triple Crown races, even though he's trained some of the greats? That's because he wants to develop his stock, rather than try and make every horse into a Derby horse. He lets his horses do what they're good at, rather than shoe-horning them into the Triple Crown races. He knows how exceptionally precocious a horse has to be to really belong in the Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont. Mark my words, this horse is going to be one to watch come Breeders' Cup!

[elnutsmalljaws]

I am amazed that it was Mott's first triple crown victory. Real class act that has trained Cigar. Probably one of the best Turf trainers in North America as well as an outstanding trainer of Fillies and Mares. Trained the great Cigar as well and it was hard to beat Mott and Pat Day at Keeneland in the early to mid 90's as well. I think he was the 2nd or 3rd youngest trainer to be inducted into the Hall of Fame a few years back as well.

Pace makes the Race. this was never more true than the Belmont Stakes. First Dude went out and did what everyone thought. Set the pace with very little pressure and actually went a tad bit faster with no pressure than he should have went and that cost him the race. He finished a very well 3rd behind a couple of stalkers. Drosselmeyer was bred for the distance with Distorted Humor as his dad, stalked behind Fly Down and even passed Fly Down down the back stretch that ended up being the winning move because he got first jump on First Dude instead of Fly Down and all could see Fly Down coming late. Ice Box never got the hot pace that he go in the Florida Derby or the hot pace and tiring muddy track that he got in the Ky Derby and ran up the track at 8-5 odds.

Now for a little handicapping tip for the novice players on there: It is funny in that I have family members call me ALL THE TIME, during Derby week, Derby Day, Oaks Day, Preakness Day, Belmont Day and the Breeders Cup weekend asking me to pick them some horses. These are not your experienced horse players these are family members that are betting just because it is a bigger day in racing and they want to be a part of the experience or it is a couple that is taking customers to the track and want to show them a good time in hopes of winning a few bucks. For the experience horse player, NONE of us can sit here at the house and say bet this, bet that, bet this, bet that with 100 percent confidence because it is paramutual wagering. The crowd and bettors determine the odds. In the Belmont, Ice Box goes off at 8-5 as a deep one run closer in a paceless race is a NO BET in my book. If he had been 3-1 or 4-1 then he may have been a bet possibility but again in a paceless race maybe or maybe not, it depends on how First Dude looked warming up. If First Dude was washed out and sweating a lot plus acting up in the post parade then maybe he was too keen up and would go to fast and then if the odds were right I would bet Ice Box. If he was relaxed and looked like he could ease along and set easy fractions then maybe not. The point is, the good horse players look at everything right up to the post time to make a wager. On days like the Belmont and there is so much money in the pool, it would take a HUGE amount of money within the last half hour or so to change the odds. The point is, as a horse racing gambler you are betting YOUR money against the guy standing next to you. He is betting HIS money against your money. Do your handicapping at the house FIRST. Leave with an idea of how the race will run considering the weather and track conditions. Look at the forecast for that day or the next day if you are handicapping ahead to see if the track could come up muddy or sloppy and then handicap 2 different scenarios. No go to the track, wait for the odds to work themselves out and see what is the best way to INVEST YOUR MONEY. I don't always bet the best horse in the race but try to bet the best investment in the race. If I like 2 horses equally like Fly Down and Ice Box and Fly Down is 6-1 versus Ice Box is 8-5 then it is a no brainer in a race like the Belmont you bet Fly Down. The program odds are set by ONE PERSON and he rarely studies the race for more than 5 minutes in doing it. You can watch the Draw for the Ky Derby on TV and once the post positions are drawn, then Mike Battaglia will put out the line for the race within 5 minutes. The biggest race of the year and the guy setting the initial odds studies for 5 minutes based on the PP draw. I never look at the odds in the program because i tis ONE GUYS OPINION. the toteboard at post time will tell you the general consensus of the public. I am done rambling now just trying to help for a couple on here have sent PM's asking for some handicapping tips and questioins.

[the_donger]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

[Chubminnow]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

Yea....my wife always had a thing for the horses that had the term "Cat" somewhere in the name. Funny thing was she was onto something there for awhile, not every time she bet but enough to make me take a second look at my own wagering.

Another thing I believe also is a bettor should go with their first gut instinct....if you think long you think wrong sometimes. At the end of the day, it's all just a horse race and if you're not having a good time then you should be doing something else

I also 100% agree with Elwood....sitting at home placing bets significantly hurts your chances of winning.

[elnutsmalljaws]

The problem with the consesus is that there are so many people out there betting on a name or a color that I have a hard time beleiving what is on the tote board sometimes.

But realize that the people betting a horse name, jockey name, color and such are the same people betting $2 at a time. The professionals that know how to handicap and even the better than average ones that know how to handicap are the ones betting $20, $50, $100, $1000 and such. It takes a whole lot of $2 bets to equal one of these. Plus the tote board is just a guideline to go by. When I say odds that effect my bet I am not splitting hairs between 3-2 and 8-5, but more like 3-2 versus 3-1. some horses are a great bet at 3-1 but not at 3-2. I make my own bettng line on the races that I bet and then depending on the final odds it helps me in my wagering. If I like 2 horses equally and I think horse #1 should be 3-1 and horse #2 should be 3-1 but when with a minute to post and #1 is 8-5 and #2 is 6-1 then I will bet #2. Even if I like #1 a bit more than #2, I still bet #2. In betting horses, not only the best horse does not always win but even if I think a horse is better than the rest I don't always bet this horse - it depends on the odds and return on investment. Sort of like playing the stock market, some stocks are a bigger risk while others are a safer bet but you decide on the investment versus return on ivestment on what you play.

One time to really look at the tote boards is when playing the bigger races, like the triple crown, breeders cup and other such days when there is a LOT of handle and when playing the New York and Southern California circuits where there are a LOT of wiseguys that do this for a living. Early money and a lot of it or late money and a lot of it on a horse will be significant in my decision making.