Severe Weather

[ClarkIR]

Other than freezing weather, this is the #2 foe to fisherman. And there is alot of it this year.

This might be off topic slightly, but I thought it would be important for everyone to know... especially tournament fishermen

The extremely dry air in the texas/plains area with La Nina weather pattern has essentially caused Tornado Alley to shift this part of the year. Normally this is the weather that happens in the middle of corn filled Nebraska.

Friday appears to have another severe weather event. Even worse, alot of meterologists and amatuers have been looking at Easter through mid-week as a major event. Amatuers tend to project larger expectations out of eagerness, so take it for what its worth but it seems to be a consensus that the surface maps are shaping up to how they did in April of 74.

The NWS also has been releasing some well worded statements in regards to next weeks weather situation. Another Meterologist went as far as to say they expect upwards of 300 tornadoes in the next two weeks (including yesterdays event).

I know its easy to be chicken little and say the sky is falling. Thats not what I am doing. Its April 20th and the record has already been broken for most tornadoes in the month with 10 days still to go. They are saying this month has a chance to be in the top 10 of worst months all time. (A list that only includes the months of May and June btw)

Its easy to take the weather for granted and say its never going to happen to you, but I would for your sake and maybe your fishing buddies sake keep an eye on spc.noaa.gov and be weary of the weather over the next couple of weeks.

[raporter]

We had several trees knocked down in our area last night. Southwest edge of Patoka lake.
Just got our phone service back after being out all day. Should be fishing everyday but just cannot stand this constant wind.

[riverrat12]

Thanks for the info, I know New Albany got hit pretty hard last night.

[psvec]

had alot of trees down in our area(evansville)

[ClarkIR]

NWS officially confirmed 2 Tornadoes touched down in Clark County Tue Night/Wed Morning... One did alot of the damage in New Albany riverrat mentioned.

Friday is not expected to be as strong as Tuesdays event, but iso events are still possible.. Alot of eyes are staying on the 25th-27th of next week. The AFD's are also getting more aggressive with their messages.

[ClarkIR]

Heres the AFD from LMK (Covers Southeastern Indiana)

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ONGOING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THIS REGION.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY AVERAGE UPWARDS OF
THREE INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TRAINING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING.
ADDITIONALLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IF TRAINING STORMS DO
SET UP. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY STALLS SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONGOING STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO AGAIN
EVOLVE INTO A QLCS TYPE SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY

A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE LATE
SUNDAY OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT THE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WE MAY SEE SOME DRY WEATHER MONDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND A SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Here is the AFD for Southwestern Indiana

FRIDAY NIGHT...FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR WEST...WITH THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE BEST CHANCE POPS NW 1/2 FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER SE 1/4 OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
FRI/FRI NIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE GOOD...RUNNING 7-8 C/KM. VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THAT GREAT ABOVE H7 THOUGH...WHICH LEADS ME TO
BELIEVE MODE WILL BE MORE MULTI CELLULAR WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL
WITH TIME BECOME A GREATER CONCERN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CWFA BY
SUNDAY AND STALL. THUS...MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
IN THE WORKS. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT WE MAY SEE A PULL BACK IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WE ARE PUT BACK INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE RAIN/STORMS.

FOR WHATEVER IT IS WORTH...OUR FAVORED BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS DEPICTS ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CWFA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY 12Z. THANKFULLY IT WILL BE SPREAD
OUT OVER SEVERAL EVENTS IN TERMS OF LOCAL SHORT-FUSE FLOOD CONCERNS.
BUT...HAVING SAID THAT...EACH EVENT WILL POTENTIALLY BE A RESPECTABLE
RAIN MAKER...WHICH OVER TIME...WILL ONLY LOWER FFG VALUES AND
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. IN THE LONG TERM
THERE MAY BE NOTABLE IMPACTS WITH RIVER FLOODING AS WELL. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE BEYOND MONDAY...IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.