...FORECAST UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE PRODUCTS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CATEGORICAL ALONG AND WEST OF I 65.
OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH
SPC WRF IN BRINGING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
WAY THE LINE IS ORIENTED ALONG WITH
STORM MOTION WILL CREATE SOME
TRAINING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN INCH
TO INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS SHOULD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACH AN INCH OR SO.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED PRODUCTS
ALREADY OUT.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
...FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TODAY WE WILL START TO SEE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN A BIT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TRACKS
QUICKLY NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING AND UP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY TOMORROW MORNING. FOR TODAY
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
AS A WARM
FRONT.
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT.
WITH THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY LOOK
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND THE
SPC WRF
SHOW STORMS FORMING AND TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IF ANY STORMS BEGIN TRAINING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL BE AGGRAVATED. GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...AND
AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. THEREFORE WITH THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING STORMS SOUTH OF THIS AREA WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT. AS TO
RAINFALL TOTALS...ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER ANOTHER ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH. A LINE OF
STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE AND MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAIN IS AND IF CLOUDS BREAK
UP AT ALL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...
...POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN MID WEEK...
AT 12Z TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A COLD
FRONT REACHING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. DURING THE
DAY THE LOW WILL ONLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND NEW LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD
FRONT
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE TEXAS LOW WILL ADVANCE TO ARKANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE WISCONSIN LOW MOVING VERY LITTLE OTHER
THAN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SSE DRIFT. THE STUBBORN STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN GET A SHOVE TO THE EAST AS A STRONG
VORT MAX DIVES INTO THE
UPPER
TROF OVER THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND BE ALONG OR PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR BY EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH
1.5 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE
K INDEX WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
HPC
HAS US IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANT UPWARD
ATMOSPHERIC MOTION IS IMPLIED WITH A 50-60KT
LLJ POINTED RIGHT AT
KENTUCKY AND THE REGION SITTING BETWEEN AN UPPER
JET STREAK TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER TO OUR WEST OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD 24-HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING TO WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK TO BE RATHER DIRE...IN THE 3 TO
LOCALLY 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER KENTUCKY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. STORMS LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING
TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONG
JET DYNAMICS
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A SIGNIFICANT BREAK FROM ALL THIS RAIN WILL FINALLY ARRIVE THURSDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER WET WEATHER MAY RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.