KY Derby Odds.....?????

[elnutsmalljaws]

Devil May Care 10-1, Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver 8-1, ?????????????

If Devil May Care wins the Ky Derby not only will this go down as the WEAKEST DERBY FIELD IN THE HISTORY OF THE RACE IN THE MODERN ERA but I will NEVER place a wager on a horse race again. Not even the best or second best 3 yr old Filly on the CD Grounds (Note Blind Luck and Tidal Pool), but pretty much if she runs in the top 6 I will be impressed.

You don't always bet the best horse in horse racing because it is based on VALUE. Grant it Lookin at Lucky is morning line 3-1 and floating up to 7-1 but the rail, not much gate speed and some other questions to me does not make him the play. The play is the #3 Nobles Promise, 24-1, finished less than a length behind Lookin at Lucky in 3 starts head to head this year and 24-1. Timeform best mud rating in the field of 462 just adds to my intrique.

[BanditMan]

Calvin what are you doing man? Driving the horses like a rental car. WoW

[elnutsmalljaws]

Super Saver won the Derby but for those of you that had Ice Box to win, you had the best horse by 4 lengths and certainly had the winner if not for him getting his momentum stopped COLD with a 1/4 mile to go. Ice Box had to come about 6 wide and gets stopped, re-starts moves out to about the 10 path and comes home like a train while Super Saver and Calvin Borel or is it Cavin Bor-rail rides the rail and passes 1 horse on the outside to win his 3rd Derby in 4 years, unbelievable.

[Chubminnow]

I was impressed with the effort Devil May Care showed us today...I think she gave the boys a good run for their money until she came down the stretch and started sucking wind.

Based on Bo-Rails comments during a brief interview prior to the running of the Derby, I felt like SuperSaver was going to hit the board. He said he worked SuperSaver out in the slop before and he did really really well and the slop didn't bother Bo-Rail one bit. This coupled with the fact that Super Saver had raced at Churchill before didn't hurt anything either. Ice Box just about had him though...I like Bo-Rails heart and soul spirit that he shows for the sport but I'm going to be watching Ice Box in the Belmont.

Who the heck was that guy who laid down a 100K Win Bet on SuperSaver??? What was that all about anyway? That bet in itself brought down the odds on SuperSaver.

[elnutsmalljaws]

I was impressed with the effort Devil May Care showed us today...I think she gave the boys a good run for their money until she came down the stretch and started sucking wind.

Based on Bo-Rails comments during a brief interview prior to the running of the Derby, I felt like SuperSaver was going to hit the board. He said he worked SuperSaver out in the slop before and he did really really well and the slop didn't bother Bo-Rail one bit. This coupled with the fact that Super Saver had raced at Churchill before didn't hurt anything either. Ice Box just about had him though...I like Bo-Rails heart and soul spirit that he shows for the sport but I'm going to be watching Ice Box in the Belmont.

Who the heck was that guy who laid down a 100K Win Bet on SuperSaver??? What was that all about anyway? That bet in itself brought down the odds on SuperSaver.

The guy won a promotion and whoever sponsored the promotion put up the $100K for the guy to bet. He beat out 67,000 in the promotion to get the opportunity then had to pick the winner. $900K for his efforts

[redneckshadrap]

I thought the exacta was a cheap payout....I was figurung 200.00 at least...

[elnutsmalljaws]

I thought the exacta was a cheap payout....I was figurung 200.00 at least...

2nd favorite over 4th favorite in the race and the filly was the 3rd favorite in the race by fractions of a dollar, I think you came out on the GOOD end. I thought the Exacta and Trifecta were HUGE. 2nd favorite, over 4th favorite over 5th favorite and you get back over $2K for the Tri was absolutely AMAZING. Hind sight is 20/20, as it always is, and I study losing races just as hard afterwords as I study winning races before. Favorite Lookin on the rail, where no horse from the 1 hole in a 20 horse field had won since War Admiral - and face it Lucky is no WAR ADMIRAL, 2nd favorite wins the race, 3rd favorite is a filly that is not even the best 3 yr old filly in the country, 4th favorite and best closer based on PP's on a Muddy tiring track that CD is known for, 5th favorite runs 3rd who is bred for the distance and had trained very well over a sloppy track. When you look at it that way, I am suprised that MANY wise guy handicappers did not KILL the trifecta. My bet is the best handicappers in the world did not lose on this race. Saver tickets alone would have gotten them plenty because Super Saver figured, Ice Box figured and Paddy O Prado figured.

Sometimes you bet a horse because of value and not because he was the best horse in the field. I loved Nobles Promise after my top 2 horses Eskendereya and Endorsement were both scratched. I still like my play because he was 24-1 and did beat Lookin at Lucky who went off at 6-1. Nobles had ran within a length of Lucky in 3 prior races and there was nothing to say he would not do it again and he did and then some at 4 times the odds.