Ky Derby....2010

[redneckshadrap]

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/contenders


Here's the list....Let the handicapping begin

[elnutsmalljaws]

No Handicapping needed on this one. The same horse I said 2 months ago will win the Kentucky Derby 2010, ESKENDEREYA. The battle is for second place because this horse will run all day long, tactical speed, top 3 Beyer Speed Horses for 3 year olds in 109 for the Wood Memorial, 106 for the Fountain of Youth and 101 in the Sunland Derby.

Lookin at Lucky is OVER-RATED and even though had a trouble trip in the Santa Anita Derby won't get the distance or like the dirt surface at Churchill Downs. Nobles Promise and Dublin could not run down a loose on the lead Stately Victor who set fast fractions in the Arkansas Derby (held on to win), the Bluegrass Stakes was won by a longshot who ran by all the contenders and won for fun and none of the so called contenders did anything. Throw out the Bluegrass Stakes and every horse in it, throw our the Arkansas Derby because nobody could run down a horse that only had a maiden and first level allowance victory to his credit.

ESKENDEREYA - top 3 beyers, absolutely toyed with the field in the Wood Memorial before drawing off to win for fun. Bred to run all day long so the 1 1/4 distance in the Derby will only help him get even better. I will take Eskendereya on top with Dean's Kitten and Awesome Act as my bomb plays for the tri and supers. But Eskendereya is the WINNER of the Derby. You won't get very good odds on this horse, my guess is around 3-1 or so maybe 4-1 and I will unload the bank account at 4-1 or higher on him but either way Eskendereya is the winner. I hope there are PLENTY of people putting money on Lookin at Lucky because it will help my horses odds.

[Grumpy]

I agree with Elnut. I picked Eskendereya on a hunch last fall and now he is at the top of everyone's list. Looks like we will just have to pick which will be second, third and fourth AND WHICH ONE CAN PULL THE UPSET, which has happened frequently this year so probably will happen in the Derby also. I think Dean's Kitten and Ice Box will we in the top four on Derby day (if the run).

Grumpy

[redneckshadrap]

Winstar Farm has hit the jackpot this yr for sure.

Pletcher's looking like Jack Roush...LOL!!!! Lot of horses......

I personally don't think Dean's Kitten will fire. It will run early....long shot closers behind Eskendereya will make the rest of the big boys really work. Anxious to see the mounts, before getting to antsy....

[Chubminnow]

ESKENDEREYA - Who owns this horse and who is the trainer?

[elnutsmalljaws]

ESKENDEREYA - Who owns this horse and who is the trainer?

Ahmed Zayat is the owner and Todd Pletcher is the trainer

Pletcher gets his first Derby victory with Eskendereya this year. Probably the first of many over the next few years becaue he is the Lukas of yesteryear and the Baffert of yesterday. Has the best stable full of Stakes Caliber horses.

[psprowler]

I'll go with Sarah Jessica Parker - AGAIN........

How about Sidney's Candy as my official pick.

[RoadToad]

I agree about Eskendereya. He deserves to be the favorite. But he'll probably be too short of a price for me. BUT that doesn't mean there isn't a bet to be found. I think Ice Box is a real talented closer who''ll be running at the end, and can get the distance. There should be plenty of speed in the race, and I think Zito is in fact trying to help ensure that by running Ice Box's stablemate Jackson Bend as a rabbit (notice the main owner is the same). My prediction is that Ice Box will be moving forward at the end, and if Eskendereya has a bad day, he could well pull off the upset. And I think a show bet on Ice Box will pay more than a win bet on Eskendereya.

Prediction: Eskendereya to win.
KY Derby Bet: $5 Win, $20 Show on Ice Box, $2 Exacta Box Eskendereya/Ice Box.

[elnutsmalljaws]

I agree about Eskendereya. He deserves to be the favorite. But he'll probably be too short of a price for me. BUT that doesn't mean there isn't a bet to be found. I think Ice Box is a real talented closer who''ll be running at the end, and can get the distance. There should be plenty of speed in the race, and I think Zito is in fact trying to help ensure that by running Ice Box's stablemate Jackson Bend as a rabbit (notice the main owner is the same). My prediction is that Ice Box will be moving forward at the end, and if Eskendereya has a bad day, he could well pull off the upset. And I think a show bet on Ice Box will pay more than a win bet on Eskendereya.

Prediction: Eskendereya to win.
KY Derby Bet: $5 Win, $20 Show on Ice Box, $2 Exacta Box Eskendereya/Ice Box.

Not sure if Eskendereya will go to the post as the favorite or not. It will be real close between him and Lookin at Lucky. Mike Battaglia will have a bit to say about the eventual outcome because he sets the morning line for the Derby and all the "novices" that come to the track use this at times for their betting. I hope he makes Lookin the favorite at somewhere around 4-1 and Eskendereya the second choice at 9-2. Depending on the public play and also the BIG TICKET BETTORS, Esk could be 7-2 or 5-1 at post time. I hope there are thousands of the Derby Day only bettors that see 'lucky" in the name and it is picked in the top 2 so that is their horse to bet. Each case of these will improves Esk's odds.


http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...contenders.pdf

After a QUICK look at the PP's at 3am half asleep - and I see the following:

Rule, Sidney Candy, Line of Daid, Conveyance, American Lion, Super Saver, Endorsement will ALL insure a fast past. These horses need to be 1 or 2 early in the battle to have a shot and with 7 of them here, the pace will be fast like 22 and 4, 45 and 4, 1:11 and change which will set it up for the horses mid pack and downtown closers.

ESKENDEREYA - tactical speed will be laying somewhere between 8th and 14th most of the race, then at the top of the stretch he will be 4th on the outside and when the running starts from there his Giants Causeway Daddy pedigree of running all day long kicks in and he wins for fun.

My BOMB play could be Mission Impazible - 4th race back after a 9 month layoff, sits mid pack and puts in a late kick, actually lost ground during the middle of the LA Derby and still came back to win. Should improve and Unbridled Song as a Daddy does not hurt the cause.

Backtalk is another BOMB play. Closer that closes with a pace. Ill Derby had absolutely NO pace and his running style was compromised. His Daddy Smarty Jones won the Derby a couple of years ago and with the 7 rabbits in this race could hit the board.

Ice Box is a DOWNTOWN closer. Needs and must get a fast pace to be a factor. He will get it but I think he will be getting last run on the leaders from as far back as he sits. Pulpit Daddy puts a little question in my mind about the mile and a quarter distance but DEEP closers have always had a shot at the board or 4th for the super.

Eskendereya to win
Eskendereya / Mission Impazible straight Exactas
Eskendereya over
Mission Impazible, Ice Box, Backtalk,
in the bomb trifecta.

5 minutes of handicapping and half asleep to boot, but a dead tired half asleep guy can see Eskendereya is the best horse that will be entered in the Derby.

[Chubminnow]

Ahmed Zayat is the owner and Todd Pletcher is the trainer

I guess I might be racist or whatever it is you want to call me....but since the owner has a name like that I kind of hope the horse comes in dead last...OR...gets beat out of 3rd place by a nose.

One things for sure, the Derby is the absolute TOUGHEST race to pick'm. Heck for that matter CD is the toughest track to pick'm at even on a regular spring meet day.

[RoadToad]

Vegas has Eskendereya the favorite at 5-2 right now. I think he'll be the chalk, but it's two weeks away, we'll find out. And I too would love to see people betting out on Lookin At Lucky, because I don't see him as much of a contender. In the Derby, I want a horse that's just coming into himself, not one that ran his butt off as a 2yo. There's a REASON only one BC Juvenile winner has won the Derby, and Lookin At Lucky ain't no Street Sense.

Speaking of horses just coming into themselves, Endorsement makes me go hmmm...

You're right about the novice bettors. I work at the betting windows every Oaks/Derby as an extra local, and it's amazing the weird ways you see people picking horses. It's great if you can pick winners on the Derby undercard, because there are inflated payoffs all day long.

[Grumpy]

I was just going over this thread again and reread my post--I can't believe that I left out LOOKIN AT LUCKY!! I had intended to include him. I can't believe that everyone else is leaving him out also. Although I have the same doubts that Elnut has about his ability to get the distance and run on dirt, I still think he has a chance to win. Two that I think could pull a big upset are Conveyence and Setsuko (if he gets in).

I put a bet on Setsuko in the Future Wager just because of the name. Setsuko is a Japanese FEMALE name and I shudder everytiime I hear a male being called Setsuko, even if it is a horse. I almost married a Setsuko when I was in Japan, so it makes it doubly disconserting.

Grumpy